The 8-14 day period looks a little more active…

Tommy found some fall gold! – pic taken on 10/1/2024

Tommy found some fall gold! – pic taken on 10/1/2024

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Thursday – 3 Oct 2024 – 9:05am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Tuesday was 79 and on Wednesday it was 78. The low this morning was 40. The upper Piedra bridge got down to 27 this morning!

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 18mph and on Wednesday it was 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6881 / 19463221 / 1961

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Thursday morning – The blocking high and ridge are keeping the American Southwest dry and warm. The storm track is well to our north.
Satellite Thursday morning – The blocking high and ridge are keeping the American Southwest dry and warm. The storm track is well to our north.

There is nothing on radar Thursday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Cold spots will drop below freezing each night. ***

*** Lots of sun, dry, and above average temps for the next 5-7 days. ***

*** The 8-14 day period will be a little more active with more clouds, a slight chance for a little precip, and temps closer to average. ***

Rest of Thursday through Wednesday… A blocking high pressure across the southwest US will give us lots of sun and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

The middle of next week, the ridge will break down a bit and allow a few more clouds, cooler temps, and a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Thursday through Monday highs will be in the mid-70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Euro precip through Wednesday evening shows a few raindrops over the mountains.
Euro precip through Wednesday evening shows a few raindrops over the mountains.

The 8-14 day period… The blocking high will weaken and allow a little more moisture into the area.  We’ll see a few more clouds, a slight chance for spotty showers, and more seasonal temps.

Euro ensemble precip to 17 Oct at 6pm on the left expects 0.49” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.47”. The pattern is hinting at being more active.
Euro ensemble precip to 17 Oct at 6pm on the left expects 0.49” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.47”. The pattern is hinting at being more active.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is one of my favorite long-range forecast products. It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart shows the range of the amounts, the mean, and the control.  I closely track the mean and the overall trends. In this case, the model expects dry weather through Tuesday and then the pattern getting more active. At this point, I don’t see any big, winter-like storms on the horizon, but we could see a little precip and cooler temps.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is one of my favorite long-range forecast products. It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart shows the range of the amounts, the mean, and the control.  I closely track the mean and the overall trends.

In this case, the model expects dry weather through Tuesday and then the pattern getting more active. At this point, I don’t see any big, winter-like storms on the horizon, but we could see a little precip and cooler temps.

The next forecast post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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