Pagosa Weather SEPTEMBER SUMMARY & October Outlook

The drought map looks good for Southwest Colorado!

Thursday – 3 Oct 2024 – 11:00am

September summary…

The average high for September is 74 and the average low is 37. The record high of 98 occurred on 6 September 1955. The record low of 15 occurred on 27 September 1908. Precip averages 2.00″ in September. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.26″ of precip and 4.1″ snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp in September was 82 on 4 and 27 September and the lowest temp was 36 on 18 September.

How did we do?

***September mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were 1-5 degrees above average.***

This product indicates that September mean precip anomalies were 50-90% below average over the lower parts of Archuleta County and 110-130% of average for the higher parts of the county. — ***This product indicates that September mean precip anomalies were 50-90% below average over the lower parts of Archuleta County and 110-130% of average for the higher parts of the county***.

***CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.14″ to 3.37″. 10 out of 19 locations had more than the average of 2.00″.***

***We got 18.39″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 16.14″***

Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

***The drought map looks good for southwest Colorado!***

***For September, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs had a minimum flow of 44cfs on 14 Sep and a maximum flow of 1,530cfs on 17 Sep.***

***Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 78.2%. Navajo Reservoir is at 64.75% – a 1.25% drop in the last month.***

October outlook…

The average high for October is 63 and the average low is 26. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 October 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 October 1910. October precip averages 2.27″ and average snowfall is 4″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of precip and 26.7″ snow.

The CPC temp outlook for October on the left shows a 70-80% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right expects a 50-60% chance for below average precip. — ***The CPC temp outlook for October on the left shows a 70-80% chance for above average temps.***
***The precip outlook on the right expects a 50-60% chance for below average precip.***

***Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 1.16″ of precip for October and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.03″ – Both models expect less than the average of xxx″.***

Here’s what Arleen expects…

The long wave pattern is set up with a strong blocking-high. There is a big ole ridge over us while deep troughs with the colder air and moisture persist over the Pacific and the Atlantic. It will change at some point but it is going to take a while. When change does some it will be abrupt!

So October is going to be drier and warmer than average. The first major change will not be till the 3rd week in October. The only chance we have to get average precipitation is for the remnants of a late season tropical storm to move through our area.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

Laurah Brock Young says:

October 3, 2024 at 11:12 am

Thank you for all of this great information. You and Pagosa Weather are appreciated!

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