Another beautiful morning rainbow! – pic taken 9/16/2024
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Monday – 16 Sep 2024 – 3:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday was 75. The low this morning was 48 and the high as of 3pm was 56.
The minimum relative humidity Sunday was 19% with a dew point of 30. Today it’s considerably more moist with the lowest readings of 36% and 51 at 2:35am.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Sunday was 30mph. As of 3pm Monday, the peak wind has been 8mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 87 / 1956 | 36 | 25 / 1971 |
Precipitation summary… A couple of spotty showers and thunderstorms moved through in the middle of the night. Heavier, more widespread bands of showers started moving through around 7am and persisted all morning. As of 2pm Monday, it looks like much of the Pagosa area got 0.20” to 0.45” of rain. Tomorrow morning’s CoCoRaHS reports should look good!
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Showers and thunderstorms will come in waves through Tuesday afternoon. ***
*** Stronger showers and thunderstorms are capable of bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning, especially tomorrow afternoon as the cold front moves through. ***
*** Potential for up to 1” snow above 12,000ft Tuesday! ***
*** Cold spots WILL drop below freezing each night next week starting with Tuesday. ***
Rest of Monday through Tuesday… The low is in the Reno NV area. The first batch of moisture has moved through. Upper-level south and southwest winds are increasing ahead of the system and will fuel instability until the cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon.
We’ll see a few patches of sun, especially the southern half of the county, as the dry slot ahead of the system moves over our heads later this afternoon and into the early evening. However, occasional fast-moving, fairly intense showers and thunderstorms are likely through Monday night.
Tuesday the cold front will move through in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely all morning and into the afternoon ahead of the front. A band of heavier showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will move through with the front.
*** Showers and embedded thunderstorms will cause brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning, especially tomorrow afternoon as the cold front moves through. ***
*** Potential for up to 1” of snow above 12,000ft on Tuesday. ***
Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Tuesday gusts will be 20-30mph. Gusts will be higher near stronger showers and thunderstorms, especially as the cold front moves through.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be 40-50. Tuesday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. *** The cold spots will be below freezing Tuesday night. ***
Wednesday through Sunday… Upper-level southwest flow will be dry and stable Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll have lots of sun, pleasant afternoons and chilly mornings.
Friday and Saturday another low will move through the region. It won’t have much moisture but could kick up a few showers and a thunderstorm or two each afternoon.
Sunday dry, stable northwest flow will give us lots of sun and seasonal temps. Then it looks like we could be dry for a while.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 10-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be 30-40. The cold spots will see morning lows in the high 20s.
The next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
