A morning rainbow! And a photo bomber – pic taken 9/15/2024
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Sunday – 15 Sep 2024 – 5:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Saturday afternoon was 78 and Sunday it was 75. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots dipped to 32.
The minimum relative humidity Saturday was 13% with a dew point of 23. Sunday it was 19% with a dew point of 30.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 20mph and on Sunday it was 30mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 89 / 1990 | 36 | 18 / 1950 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Fall-like storm early Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. ***
*** Potential for up to 1” snow above 12,000ft Tuesday! ***
*** Cold spots WILL drop below freezing each night next week starting with Tuesday. ***
Rest of Sunday through Tuesday… We’ll catch the southern end of a strong low-pressure system as it moves through the western US. Remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana’s moisture will feed into the system and give us a good soaking.
Showers and spotty thunderstorms will come in waves.
Sunday evening there will be a few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Moisture will increase overnight leading to a better chance for showers early Monday morning.
Monday showers will ramp up through the day and overnight. The best chance for a soaking rain is Monday afternoon to mid-morning Tuesday.
Tuesday showers will gradually start tapering off late in the morning and into the afternoon.
*** Showers and embedded thunderstorms will cause brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***
*** Potential for up to 1” of snow above 12,000ft on Tuesday. ***
Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Tuesday gusts will be 20-25mph. Gusts will be higher near stronger showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Sunday lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Monday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Tuesday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be 30 to 40. *** The cold spots will be below freezing Tuesday night. ***
For verification after the storm, here are the totals from other 12z forecast models on Sunday: Euro: 1.69”, GFS: 1.12”, Canadian: 2.95”, Icon: 2.85”, WPC: 1.32”, Euro AI: 1.34”, Euro ensemble: 2.12”, GFS ensemble: 1.38”, Canadian ensemble: 1.45”, HRRR 18z run to noon Tuesday: 1.26”, NAM 18z run:1.67”.
Wednesday through Saturday… Upper-level southwest flow will be dry and stable Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll have lots of sun, pleasant afternoons and chilly mornings.
Friday and Saturday another low will move through the region. It won’t have much moisture but could kick up a shower or two over the mountains each afternoon.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be 30-40. The cold spots will see morning lows in the high 20s.
The next forecast post will be tomorrow afternoon.
– Shawn
