Intense showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front this afternoon…

Shelf clouds often indicate strong outflow from thunderstorms - pic taken 9/16/2024

Shelf clouds often indicate strong outflow from thunderstorms – pic taken 9/16/2024

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Tuesday – 17 Sep 2024 – 9:35am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday was 62. The low this morning was 53.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday was 16mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7487 / 19563620 / 1968

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got a good soaking.  Occasional fast-moving, intense showers and thunderstorms moved through parts of the county last night.  It was quite a lightning show.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from 0.24” to 1.48”. Mark was the rain lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from 0.24” to 1.48”. Mark was the rain lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday morning – The cold front will move through our area west to east this afternoon. Currently there are a few spotty showers and thunderstorms.  They’ll increase as the front nears.
Water vapor satellite Tuesday morning – The cold front will move through our area west to east this afternoon. Currently there are a few spotty showers and thunderstorms.  They’ll increase as the front nears.
Radar at 9:16am Tuesday morning – A band of fast moving showers if moving through La Plata County and western Archuleta County.
Radar at 9:16am Tuesday morning – A band of fast moving showers is moving through La Plata County and western Archuleta County.

Forecast highlights…

*** Intense, fast-moving showers and thunderstorms are capable of bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning, especially this afternoon as the cold front moves through. ***

*** Potential for up to 1” snow above 12,000ft ***

*** Cold spots WILL drop below freezing each night the rest of the week. ***

Thank you to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this good fall soaking!
Thank you to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this good fall soaking!

Rest of Tuesday… Spotty, fast-moving, intense showers and thunderstorms will move through all morning. Things will get a little more “exciting” as a cold front moves through the county west to east roughly 11am to 4pm. A band of heavier showers and thunderstorms with stronger winds and hail will move through with the front.

Dry and cooler air will move in behind the front giving us a clear night full of stars and chilly temps.

Winds… Tuesday gusts will be 20-30mph. Gusts will be higher near stronger showers and thunderstorms, especially as the cold front moves through.

Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. *** The cold spots will be below freezing Tuesday night. ***

NBM forecast radar from 10am to 6pm Tuesday – A few fast-moving, intense showers and thunderstorms move through parts of the county during the morning. Things really ramp up roughly 11am to 4pm ahead of the front and then clear out pretty quickly behind the front.
NBM forecast radar from 10am to 6pm Tuesday – A few fast-moving, intense showers and thunderstorms move through parts of the county during the morning. Things really ramp up roughly 11am to 4pm ahead of the front and then clear out pretty quickly behind the front.
WPC forecast precip to Tuesday at 6pm shows 0.69” in the Pagosa area. I think most of us will be in the 0.30” to 0.60” range.
WPC forecast precip to Tuesday at 6pm shows 0.69” in the Pagosa area. I think most of us will be in the 0.30” to 0.60” range.

Wednesday through Sunday… Upper-level southwest flow will be dry and stable Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll have lots of sun, pleasant afternoons and chilly mornings.

Friday and Saturday another low will move through the region. It won’t have much moisture but could kick up a few showers and a thunderstorm or two late Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

Sunday dry, stable northwest flow will give us lots of sun and seasonal temps. Then it looks like we could be dry for a while.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 10-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be 30-40. The cold spots will see morning lows in the high 20s.

The next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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