Same ole persistent weather pattern…

Tommy appreciates our fantastic sunsets too! – pic taken 8/30/2024

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Sunday – 1 Sep 2024 – 2:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday afternoon was 79 and the high on Saturday was 79. The low this morning was 44. The cold spots dipped into the mid to high 30s.

The minimum relative humidity Friday was 17% with a dew point of 31. Saturday it was 19% with a dew point of 33.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Friday afternoon was 21mph and on Saturday it was 12mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	90 / 1985	41	30 / 1962

Precipitation summary… A few folks along highway 84 reported 0.01” to 0.02”, but most of us didn’t get any rain.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop Sunday roughly 1:10pm to 2:05pm – The high is over northwest CO. In our area, low and mid-level flow is out of the east while upper flow out of the southwest. It’s mostly stable along the CO/NM border. Cumulus clouds are trying to build over the mountains. — Water vapor satellite loop Sunday roughly 1:10pm to 2:05pm – The high is over northwest CO. In our area, low and mid-level flow is out of the east while upper level flow is out of the southwest. It’s mostly stable along the CO/NM border. Cumulus clouds are trying to build over the mountains.

*Radar at 2:18pm Sunday – It’s quiet over Archuleta County. I expect a few isolated storms to develop later this afternoon. They’ll move “backwards” or east to west.*

Forecast highlights…

*** A chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon for the next 7-10 days. ***

*** Any storm can produce a brief period of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning over a small area. ***

Rest of Sunday through next Sunday… The subtropical high and ridge will waver around the Four Corners region. Moisture and instability will be marginal leading to a slight chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Higher gusts are likely near storms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be near 40 to the low 50s.

*NBM precip for this period shows less than 0.05” in the Pagosa area. Storms each day will be isolated. Any single storm can drop this much rain, otherwise, expect it to be mostly dry.*

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken but remain in the area – typical for early September. Marginal moisture and instability result in a weak monsoon pattern for us with isolated afternoon and evening storms.

Temps will be near average to slightly above average.

*The Euro ensemble precip to 16 Sep at 6am on the left expects 0.52” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.58”.*

The next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon