Playing the Rain Lottery; More Losers than Winners

Sunset

Every sunset is special! Thanks to Felipe Payet for sharing this picture with us. – pic taken 9/1/2024

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Tuesday – 3 Sep 2024 – 6:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 79 and the high today, Tuesday, has been 81. The low this morning was 43. The cold spots dipped into the mid to high 30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 20mph and today it has been 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8090 / 19554025 / 1973

Precipitation summary…

3 Sep 24 CoCoRaHS
CoCoRaHS reports Monday morning for SUNDAY afternoon, a few folks reported a trace to 0.01”, but most of us didn’t get any rain.
4 Sep 24 CoCoRaHS
CoCoRaHS reports Tuesday morning for MONDAY afternoon. There were a few showers that moved through the area. Mike in Aspen Springs was the rain lottery winner with .34″.

Forecast discussion…

Sat 3 Sep 1700L
Water vapor satellite Tuesday, 1700L. The high is over northern Arizona.  An area of low pressure and associated fronts are pushing in from Idaho to northern Colorado. However, the area of high pressure and ridging will keep most of the moisture and energy to our north. Today the flow is out of the northwest to the southeast.
Radar 3 Sep 1700L
Radar at 5:30pm Tuesday – there are a few showers moving from the northwest to the southeast. We could see more activity around sunset tonight.

Forecast highlights…

*** A chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon for the next 7 days. ***

*** Any storm can produce a brief period of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning over a small area. ***

Rest of Tuesday through next Monday… The subtropical high and ridge will waver around the Four Corners region. Moisture and instability will be marginal leading to a slight chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Higher gusts are likely near storms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be near 40 to the low 50s.

Precip 7 day
NBM precip for this period shows zero to .2″ in the Pagosa area. Storms each day will be isolated. Any single storm can drop this much rain, otherwise, expect it to be mostly dry. At least the we can expect good sunsets each day.

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken but remain in the area – typical for early September. Marginal moisture and instability result in a weak monsoon pattern for us with isolated afternoon and evening storms.

Temps will be near average to slightly above average.

Euro 2 week 3 Sep 24

The Euro ensemble precip to 17 Sep at midnight above expects 0.51” in the Pagosa area while GFS below expects 0.76”.

GFS 2 week 3 Sep 24

The next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Arleen

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Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!

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