Pagosa Weather AUGUST SUMMARY & September Outlook

1 Sep 2024 am - Drought map for CO

The drought map looks good for Southwest Colorado!

Wednesday – 4 Sep 2024 – 9:30am

August summary…

The average high for August is 80 and the average low is 45. The record high of 97 occurred on 5 August 1940. The record low of 28 occurred on 30 August 1978. Precip averages 2.69″ in August with zero snow – our wettest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.32″ of precip and zero snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp in August was 90 on 5 August and the lowest temp was 44 on 31 August.

How did we do?

July mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were 1-3 degrees above average.
August mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were 1-3 degrees above average.

July mean precip anomalies were 150-170% above of average for most of Archuleta County.
August mean precip anomalies were 150-170% above of average for most of Archuleta County.

CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 3.03″ to 4.86″. 20 out of 20 locations had more than the average of 2.69″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 3.03″ to 4.86″. 20 out of 20 locations had more than the average of 2.69″.

We got 16.23″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 14.14″
We got 16.23″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 14.14″

Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

The drought map looks good for southwest Colorado!
The drought map looks good for southwest Colorado!

For August, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs had a minimum flow of 48cfs on 6 Aug and a maximum flow of 685cfs on 10 Aug.
For August, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs had a minimum flow of 48cfs on 6 Aug and a maximum flow of 685cfs on 10 Aug.

Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 80.7%. Navajo Reservoir is at 66.05% – a 3% drop in the last month.
Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 80.7%. Navajo Reservoir is at 66.05% – a 3% drop in the last month.

August outlook…

The average high for September is 74 and the average low is 37. The record high of 98 occurred on 6 September 1955. The record low of 15 occurred on 27 September 1908. Precip averages 2.00″ in September. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.26″ of precip and 4.1″ snow.

The CPC temp outlook for September on the left shows a 60-70% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right expects a 33-40% chance for below average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for September on the left shows a 60-70% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right expects a 33-40% chance for below average precip.

Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 1.60″ of precip for September and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.39″ – Both models expect less than the average of 2.00″.
Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 1.60″ of precip for September and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.39″ – Both models expect less than the average of 2.00″.

Here’s what Arleen expects…

Welcome to meteorological fall! We saw a few aspen leaves that were turning yellow today. Yet, the month of September is still considered part of our monsoon season. The ridge will stay primarily to our west through the first two weeks. For the most part showers will approach us from the northwest to the north – not an ideal flow for good precipitation. It will remain spotty. The ridge is going to weaken and collapse the last two weeks of September.

I am forecasting less than average precipitation for the month of September. The only caveat is if a tropical storm were to gin up in the eastern Pacific and that moisture was to advect into our area. However, the eastern Pacific has been fairly quiet as expected this season.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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