Playing the rain lottery…

Love these high alpine views! – pic taken 7/14/2024

Love these high alpine views! – pic taken 7/14/2024

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Sunday – 21 July 2024 – 3:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Saturday afternoon was 77 and the high so far on Sunday is 73. The low this morning was 55.

The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 29% with a dew point of 42. Today it was 39% with a dew point of 46.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 21mph. Today’s peak wind so far is 21mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8393 / 19454635 / 1958

Precipitation summary… Showers and thunderstorms continue to be “spotty”.  Most locations get less than a tenth of an inch of precip each day while a few lucky folks get a good soaking.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from zero to 0.28”. The rain lottery winners were Linda in town and Frank in Hidden Valley.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from zero to 0.28”. The rain lottery winners were Linda in town and Frank in Hidden Valley.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday morning range from zero to 0.25”. The rain lottery winner was Robyn in the Chromo area.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday morning range from zero to 0.25”. The rain lottery winner was Robyn in the Chromo area.

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite and lighting loop roughly 2:30pm to 3:30pm – Quite a bit of lightning moved across Archuleta County as storms started building around noon.
Visual satellite and lighting loop roughly 2:30pm to 3:30pm – Quite a bit of lightning moved across Archuleta County as storms started building around noon.
Radar at 3:26pm Saturday afternoon – A few places in Archuleta County got a good soaking this afternoon.  I saw a few weather sensors just east of town with over an inch of rain. Our friends in the Chromo area got roughly 0.50” to 0.75”. Most of the action is done for today but there could be a round of isolated storms around sunset.  Storms are moving towards the south-southeast.
Radar at 3:26pm Saturday afternoon – A few places in Archuleta County got a good soaking this afternoon.  I saw a few weather sensors just east of town with over an inch of rain. Our friends in the Chromo area got roughly 0.50” to 0.75”. Most of the action is done for today but there could be a round of isolated storms around sunset.  Storms are moving towards the south-southeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** The chance for afternoon storms is lower through Thursday and then will ramp up a bit Friday and Saturday. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Rest of today through Saturday evening… The upper-level high is currently over the Vegas area with a high-pressure ridge extending north into Alberta. It will continue to wobble around that area through the week.

Things could get a little more interesting Friday and Saturday as the remnants of a weak tropical system get absorbed in the upper-level west to east flow.  Right now there is a lot of uncertainty, but it doesn’t look too impressive.

The daily routine will continue…

Each morning we’ll wake up to bright blue skies. Then scattered cumulus clouds will build over the mountains during the late morning.  By early afternoon, some of those cumulus clouds will grow into showers and a thunderstorm or two. Clouds will decrease each evening and we could be treated to pretty sunsets and a rainbow.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

Temps… Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Highs Thursday and Friday near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

WPC precip to 6pm next Saturday evening expects 0.84” in the Pagosa area. Any single storm can drop this amount over a small area. Lucky folks could get 1” during the next week. Amounts will vary considerably. Other forecast models precip total for the same period: Euro: 0.66”, GFS: 1.07”, NBM: 0.99”, Euro AI: 0.50”, Euro ensemble: 0.78”, GFS ensemble: 0.77”, Canadian ensemble: 0.84”.
WPC precip to 6pm next Saturday evening expects 0.84” in the Pagosa area. Any single storm can drop this amount over a small area. Lucky folks could get 1” during the next week. Amounts will vary considerably. Other forecast models precip total for the same period: Euro: 0.66”, GFS: 1.07”, NBM: 0.99”, Euro AI: 0.50”, Euro ensemble: 0.78”, GFS ensemble: 0.77”, Canadian ensemble: 0.84”.

8-14 day precip… Monsoon moisture will get partially cut-off by upper-level westerly flow starting Sunday/Monday next week. Afternoon storms will be fewer and weaker, but they’ll stick with us.

Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 5 Aug expects 1.17” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.47”.  It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 5 Aug expects 1.17” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.47”.  It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.

I will do the next forecast post on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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