Active through Saturday and then a break…

Geese at sunrise – my morning wake-up alarm – pic taken 7/22/2024

Geese at sunrise – my morning wake-up alarm – pic taken 7/22/2024

 If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Tuesday – 22 July 2024 – 2:10pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 75 and the high so far on Monday is 76. The low this morning was 47.

The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 30% with a dew point of 41. Today it was 28% with a dew point of 40.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 21mph. Today’s peak wind so far is 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19404631 / 1973

Precipitation summary… Showers and thunderstorms continue to be “spotty”.  Most locations get less than a tenth of an inch of precip each day while a few lucky folks get a good soaking.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from a trace to 0.16”. The CoCoRaHS rain lottery winner was Arleen just north of Turkey Springs. Bobby in Lake Forest reported 0.39” and John in Lakewood reported 0.26”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from a trace to 0.16”. The CoCoRaHS rain lottery winner was Arleen just north of Turkey Springs. Bobby in Lake Forest reported 0.39” and John in Lakewood reported 0.26”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday morning range from 0.01” to 0.61”. The CoCoRaHS rain lottery winner was Patty in the Chromo area. Kimberly reported 1.14” in Log Hill!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday morning range from 0.01” to 0.61”. The CoCoRaHS rain lottery winner was Patty in the Chromo area. Kimberly reported 1.14” in Log Hill!

Where are the hazy skies coming from?… Upper-level clockwise flow around the high currently centered over NV is pushing smoke across a good chunk of the US from fires in eastern Oregon, other fires in the Pacific Northwest, and Canada.

The smoke map at noon on Monday – I added the high over Nevada and the blue arrows showing the upper-level flow around the high. Thankfully most of this smoke is aloft in our area.  Air quality at noon in our area is on the lower end of “moderate”.  Some spots along the Front Range have air quality rated “unhealthy for sensitive groups”.
The smoke map at noon on Monday – I added the high over Nevada and the blue arrows showing the upper-level flow around the high.
Thankfully most of this smoke is aloft in our area.  Air quality at noon in our area is on the lower end of “moderate”.  Some spots along the Front Range have air quality rated “unhealthy for sensitive groups”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite at 1:36pm Monday – We are on the eastern edge of the monsoon moisture plume.  The best moisture – dark blue - is to our west. Northerly flow around the high – red arrows – has dried us out a bit. Clouds are building over our mountains as I type.
Water vapor satellite at 1:36pm Monday – We are on the eastern edge of the monsoon moisture plume.  The best moisture – dark blue – is to our west. Northerly flow around the high – red arrows – has dried us out a bit. Clouds are building over our mountains as I type.
Radar at 1:50pm Monday afternoon – The first couple of showers and thunderstorms have developed along the crest of the south San Juans and Sangre de Cristos.  They are moving from north to south.
Radar at 1:50pm Monday afternoon – The first couple of showers and thunderstorms have developed along the crest of the south San Juans and Sangre de Cristos.  They are moving from north to south.

Forecast highlights…

*** The chance for afternoon storms is lower through Thursday and then will ramp up a bit Friday and Saturday. Starting Sunday the chance will drop considerably, but isolated afternoon storms won’t totally go away. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Rest of today through Saturday evening… The upper-level high is currently over NV with a high-pressure ridge extending north into Alberta. It will continue to wobble around that area through the week.

Things could get a little more interesting Friday and Saturday as the remnants of a weak tropical system get absorbed in the upper-level west to east flow.  Right now there is a lot of uncertainty, but it doesn’t look too impressive.

The daily routine will continue…

Each morning we’ll wake up to bright blue skies. Then scattered cumulus clouds will build over the mountains during the late morning.  By early afternoon, some of those cumulus clouds will grow into showers and a thunderstorm or two. Clouds will decrease each evening and we could be treated to pretty sunsets and a rainbow.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

Temps… Highs Tuesday through Wednesday will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Highs Thursday and Friday will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Highs Saturday will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

NBM precip to 6pm Saturday evening expects 0.53” in the Pagosa area. Any single storm can drop this amount over a small area. Lucky folks could get 1” during this period. Amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to 6pm Saturday evening expects 0.53” in the Pagosa area. Any single storm can drop this amount over a small area. Lucky folks could get 1” during this period. Amounts will vary considerably.

Sunday and Monday… Upper-level westerly flow will dry us out. There will still be a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but most of us will stay dry.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

8-14 day precip… Monsoon moisture will get partially cut-off by upper-level westerly flow starting Sunday/Monday next week. Afternoon storms will be fewer and weaker, but they’ll stick with us.

Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 7 Aug expects 0.58” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.18”.  Most of this precip will fall between now and Saturday evening and then we’ll dry out. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 7 Aug expects 0.58” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.18”.  Most of this precip will fall between now and Saturday evening and then we’ll dry out. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.

I will do the next forecast post on Thursday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

  1. The photo of the geese at sunrise is AMAZING.
    Thank you for sending out photos and of course the weather.
    Barb R

    1. Barb, thank you for your kind words. Shawn has an incredible eye and enjoys taking and sharing pictures of our paradise. Thank you for following us.
      Arleen

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

© 2026 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon