Flood Watch for Thursday – Another good chance for rain Monday and Tuesday…

 A glorious day in Telluride! – pic taken 6/25/2024

 A glorious day in Telluride! – pic taken 6/25/2024

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Wednesday – 26 June 2024 – 5:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Tuesday afternoon was 82 and on Wednesday it was 84. The low this morning was 53.

The minimum relative humidity today was 23% with a dew point of 41. Yesterday it was 17% with a dew point of 35.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 39mph caused by a shower that moved through around 4:30pm.  Today’s highest wind so far is just 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294/ 19903822 / 1951

Precipitation summary… A couple of spotty showers moved through yesterday afternoon but precip amounts were light.  The highest report was 0.03” in the Lake Forest area.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this evening – At 5pm on Wednesday there is considerable moisture over the Four Corners region circulating clockwise around the high over NM. It’s still stable in our area so convection has been limited.
Water vapor satellite this evening – At 5pm on Wednesday there is considerable moisture over the Four Corners region circulating clockwise around the high over NM. It’s still stable in our area so convection has been limited.
Radar this evening – At 5:18pm Wednesday there are no showers indicated on radar over Archuleta County. I think it will get more active tonight, but showers will be hit and miss.  Showers will move towards the northeast in our area.
At 5:18pm Wednesday there are no showers indicated on radar over Archuleta County. I think it will get more active tonight, but showers will be hit and miss.  Showers will move towards the northeast in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH for all of southwest Colorado valid Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. ***

*** Stronger surges of moisture will give us our best chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening and then again on Sunday. ***

*** Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the foreseeable future. ***

Rest of Wednesday and Thursday… A surge of moisture will increase our chance for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precip is late Wednesday evening and then again Thursday afternoon. Mid and upper-level flow is weak so storms will be “slow movers” and could drop a bunch of rain over small areas in a quick period.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Lows Wednesday night will be in the high 40s to mid-50s. Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

HRRR forecast radar from 6pm Wednesday evening to late Thursday evening – Scattered light showers are possible most of the night. A good band of showers and thunderstorms is possible Thursday afternoon and then another one later in the evening.
HRRR forecast radar from 6pm Wednesday evening to late Thursday evening – Scattered light showers are possible most of the night. A good band of showers and thunderstorms is possible Thursday afternoon and then another one later in the evening.
WPC precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.19” in the Pagosa area.  This all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.
WPC precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.19” in the Pagosa area.  This all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Friday and Saturday… There will be just a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or a thunderstorm as moisture decreases.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Sunday and Monday… Another surge of tropical moisture will boost our chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precip is Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

WPC 48-hour precip from Saturday at 6pm to Monday at 6pm shows 0.22” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. It’s all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.
WPC 48-hour precip from Saturday at 6pm to Monday at 6pm shows 0.22” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. It’s all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Tuesday and Wednesday… Moisture and instability will decrease giving us just a slight chance for isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Unless my forecast is out of whack or something pops up, my next post will be Friday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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