Another soaking possible Sunday and Monday…

A sky full of impressive mammatus clouds near Hesperus yesterday – pic taken 6/27/2024

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Friday – 28 June 2024 – 3:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Thursday afternoon was 73 and so far on Friday it was 77. The low this morning was 49.

The minimum relative humidity today was 48% with a dew point of 36. Yesterday it was 48% with a dew point of 52.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 17mph. Today’s highest wind so far is 22mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	94/ 1990	40	22 / 1948

Precipitation summary… Most of the county got decent precip yesterday but precip amounts varied considerably.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.16” to 1.10”. Frank was the big rain lottery winner in Hidden Valley.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The main band of moisture, blue arrows, has been pushed to our east due to upper-level westerly flow, yellow arrows, from the trough to our north. There is just enough moisture and instability to kick up a couple of isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two this afternoon.

Radar this afternoon at 3pm – A couple of cells have popped up this afternoon. The cells are moving slowly towards the east-southeast and are capable of producing a brief period of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Another surge of moisture will give us a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon to Monday evening. ***

Rest of Friday and Saturday… There will be just a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or a thunderstorm as moisture decreases.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Higher isolated gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs Friday will be in the mid-70 to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Highs Saturday will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Sunday and Monday… Another surge of tropical moisture will boost our chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precip is Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

WPC precip to late Monday evening shows 1.03” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. It’s all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably. Amounts from other forecast models for after-the-fact verification: NBM: 0.79”, Euro: 1.72”, Euro ensemble: 1.36”, GFS: 1.02”, GFS ensemble: 1.56”, Canadian ensemble: 0.77”. — WPC precip to late Monday evening shows 1.03” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. It’s all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

*Amounts from other forecast models for after-the-fact verification: NBM: 0.79”, Euro: 1.72”, Euro ensemble: 1.36”, GFS: 1.02”, GFS ensemble: 1.56”, Canadian ensemble: 0.77”.*

Tuesday through Sunday… Moisture and instability will decrease giving us just a slight chance for isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two each afternoon into each evening. However, some forecast models keep us dry Thursday through the weekend, so my forecast confidence is decreasing for precip during this period.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

*Euro ensemble total precip to 13 Jul – We should get a soaking Sunday and Monday. After that, the forecast models lean towards a drier pattern.*

My next post will be on Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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