Lots of sun and breezy the rest of the week …

Snow showers all around Wolf Creek yesterday afternoon – Web cam capture 4/15/2024 at 4:30pm

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Tuesday – 16 Apr 2024 – 6:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 61 and the low this morning was 27.

The peak wind at the airfield today was 22mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	75/ 1985	24	9 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There were a few spotty raindrops, a few spotty snowflakes, and a little bit of graupel yesterday afternoon but not enough to measure.

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite this afternoon … Drier air is moving into our area from the west. The ridge along the west coast, jagged blue line, will keep the region dry but breezy the rest of the week.*

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Rest of the week will be dry with pleasant spring temps and breezy afternoons. ***

*** Slight chance for a few spotty raindrops this weekend. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Friday… Upper-level flow will be mostly “flat” – west to east, and fairly dry. Expect partly cloudy skies, gusty afternoon winds, and dry weather.

Winds… Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph.

Temps… Tuesday night lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. The rest of the period highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Saturday and Sunday… A weak system could move through and bring in a few more clouds, a spotty afternoon shower or two, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. My expectations for precip are low.

The snow level will be 10,000ft to 10,500ft but I don’t expect any snow to accumulate in the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph both days.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

*NBM precip to late Sunday evening shows a little precip along the mountains and up to 0.15” along The Divide.*

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday… Ridging will build back over the region and give us lots of sun, very pleasant temps, and breezy afternoons.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be 30 to 40.

And the rest of the two-week period?… The pattern could get more active towards the end of next week.

Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteograms – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of those 50 versions. 1 shows a slight chance for a few spotty raindrops this weekend. Then it’s dry the first half next week. And the it could more active towards the end of next week. — Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteograms – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of those 50 versions.

*1 shows a slight chance for a few spotty raindrops this weekend. Then it’s dry the first half of next week. And then it could more active towards the end of next week.*

*The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook for 24-30 Apr is leaning toward above average precip for our region.*

My next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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