Pagosa Weather pup, Tommy, wishes we had snow all year long! – pic taken 3/15/2024
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Saturday – 16 Mar 2024 –11:00am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 44 and the low this morning was 32.
The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 9mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 50 | 65 / 1967 | 15 | -13 / 1913 |
Precipitation summary… Another band of showers moved through during the early morning hours. Scattered light showers continue as I type. Wolf Creek reported 9” of new snow in the last 24 hours and a storm total of 28” so far.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** A slow-moving cut-off low will keep things unsettled into Sunday. ***
*** The WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juans will expire at noon Saturday. Then a WEATHER ADVISORY is out from noon Saturday to 9am Sunday for 6-12” of snow. ***
*** Avalanche danger in our mountains is rated “considerable”. ***
Rest of Saturday into Sunday… The cut-off low will wobble around AZ and continue to push moisture into our region and keep things unstable. The low will gradually weaken through the period.
The details…
A “wedge” of moisture associated with upper-level divergence around the low is funneling over us from the south. The “wedge” will get more active this afternoon and evening with more showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Precip could fall heavily over small areas for brief periods. Rain/snow/graupel/small hail are all possible. The snow level will rise to 7,800ft Saturday afternoon and then drop below 7,000ft late Saturday evening.
Snow amounts Saturday at noon to Sunday morning…
Valley below 7,800ft: 1-3”
Valley above 7,800ft: 2-4”
Mountains: 6-12”
By Sunday there won’t be much left of the cut-off low. Instability and residual moisture will fuel spotty afternoon showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. The snow level will rise to 7,600ft Sunday afternoon and then drop below 7,000ft late Sunday evening.
Snow amounts Sunday morning to Sunday evening…
Valley below 7,600ft: up to 1” but it will be spotty
Valley above 7,600ft: up to 2” but it will be spotty
Mountains: 1-3”
Winds… Peak winds will be 10-15mph each afternoon.
Temps… Highs Saturday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s. Lows Saturday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Highs Sunday will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows Sunday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Monday through Thursday… The pesky cut-off low will still be wobbling near us into Wednesday morning. There won’t be much left of it, but instability and residual moisture will be enough to kick up spotty showers, mostly in the afternoons over the mountains.
Snow levels could pop up to 8,200ft each afternoon. All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail.
Definition of “spotty showers”: They cover small areas, precip changes intensity quickly, and they start and stop abruptly. In other words, if you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes or drive a mile or two! Most of the time it will be dry with brief periods of “fun”.
Snow totals for the entire period…
Valley below 8,200ft: mostly rain but up to an inch of snow in a few lucky spots
Valley above 8,200ft: up to 2” in the lucky spots
Mountains: 2-4” but it will be spotty
Winds… Gusts will be around 15mph Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons. Thursday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs Thursday will be in the high 40s to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.
THANKS for your snow reports and pictures!
Arleen will take over Sunday.
– Shawn
