Another round of showers this afternoon and evening …

Pagosa Weather pup, Tommy, wishes we had snow all year long! – pic taken 3/15/2024

Pagosa Weather pup, Tommy, wishes we had snow all year long! – pic taken 3/15/2024

 If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Saturday – 16 Mar 2024 –11:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 44 and the low this morning was 32.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5065 / 196715-13 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Another band of showers moved through during the early morning hours. Scattered light showers continue as I type. Wolf Creek reported 9” of new snow in the last 24 hours and a storm total of 28” so far.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from a trace to 5.8”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from a trace to 5.8”
CoCoRaHS 3-day snow totals range from 2.4” to 14.3”
CoCoRaHS 3-day snow totals range from 2.4” to 14.3”

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this morning – The low continues to wobble around western AZ.  Last night’s band of showers has moved to our north and weakened. Moist southerly flow around the low into our area will keep things unstable with showers today.
Water vapor satellite loop this morning – The low continues to wobble around western AZ.  Last night’s band of showers has moved to our north and weakened. Moist southerly flow around the low into our area will keep things unstable with showers today.
Radar this morning – Scattered showers are moving counter-clockwise around the low.  It will get more active this afternoon.
Radar this morning – Scattered showers are moving counter-clockwise around the low.  It will get more active this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** A slow-moving cut-off low will keep things unsettled into Sunday. ***

*** The WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juans will expire at noon Saturday.  Then a WEATHER ADVISORY is out from noon Saturday to 9am Sunday for 6-12” of snow. ***

*** Avalanche danger in our mountains is rated “considerable”. ***

Rest of Saturday into Sunday… The cut-off low will wobble around AZ and continue to push moisture into our region and keep things unstable. The low will gradually weaken through the period.

The details…

A “wedge” of moisture associated with upper-level divergence around the low is funneling over us from the south.  The “wedge” will get more active this afternoon and evening with more showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.

Precip could fall heavily over small areas for brief periods. Rain/snow/graupel/small hail are all possible.  The snow level will rise to 7,800ft Saturday afternoon and then drop below 7,000ft late Saturday evening.

Snow amounts Saturday at noon to Sunday morning…

Valley below 7,800ft: 1-3”

Valley above 7,800ft: 2-4”

Mountains: 6-12”

By Sunday there won’t be much left of the cut-off low. Instability and residual moisture will fuel spotty afternoon showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. The snow level will rise to 7,600ft Sunday afternoon and then drop below 7,000ft late Sunday evening.

Snow amounts Sunday morning to Sunday evening…

Valley below 7,600ft: up to 1” but it will be spotty

Valley above 7,600ft: up to 2” but it will be spotty

Mountains: 1-3”

Winds… Peak winds will be 10-15mph each afternoon.

Temps… Highs Saturday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Highs Sunday will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows Sunday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.

NWS snow forecast to 6am Tuesday shows 1-4” in the Pagosa Springs area - low end of this range below 7,600ft and high end of the range close to the mountains.  8-12” is expected near Wolf Creek and higher amounts are expected along parts of The Divide.
NWS snow forecast to 6am Tuesday shows 1-4” in the Pagosa Springs area – low end of this range below 7,600ft and high end of the range close to the mountains.  8-12” is expected near Wolf Creek and higher amounts are expected along parts of The Divide.
The NWS forecast model for snow zoomed into our area shows 1-2” near Pagosa, 3” near Chama, and 10” for Wolf Creek Pass. This looks good to me.
The NWS forecast model for snow zoomed into our area shows 1-2” near Pagosa, 3” near Chama, and 10” for Wolf Creek Pass. This looks good to me.

Monday through Thursday… The pesky cut-off low will still be wobbling near us into Wednesday morning. There won’t be much left of it, but instability and residual moisture will be enough to kick up spotty showers, mostly in the afternoons over the mountains.

Snow levels could pop up to 8,200ft each afternoon. All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail.

Definition of “spotty showers”: They cover small areas, precip changes intensity quickly, and they start and stop abruptly. In other words, if you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes or drive a mile or two! Most of the time it will be dry with brief periods of “fun”.

Snow totals for the entire period…

Valley below 8,200ft: mostly rain but up to an inch of snow in a few lucky spots

Valley above 8,200ft: up to 2” in the lucky spots

Mountains: 2-4” but it will be spotty

Winds… Gusts will be around 15mph Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons. Thursday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs Thursday will be in the high 40s to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

GFS snow Monday through Thursday shows 0.40” near Pagosa, 0.90” near Chama, and 1-3” in our mountains.  This will fall from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary.
GFS snow Monday through Thursday shows 0.40” near Pagosa, 0.90” near Chama, and 1-3” in our mountains.  This will fall from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary.

THANKS for your snow reports and pictures!

Arleen will take over Sunday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon