Pretty sunset alert tonight! It will be cold the next couple of mornings…

Merry Christmas from Pagosa Weather! – Ai generated image

Merry Christmas from Pagosa Weather! – Ai generated image

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Sunday – 24 Dec 2023 – 10:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 36. The low this morning was 27.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3856 / 19434-34 / 1990

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported 2” of new snow this morning bringing their storm total to 10”.  CoCoRaHS reports are below.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports ranged from a trace to 1.2”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports ranged from a trace to 1.2”

A BIG THANKS to everyone for your reports!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Fun satellite image this morning but it’s a bit boring for us. The main system has pushed into the central plains. In our area, ridging and drier upper-level northwest flow is taking over. The “fun” part is that trough over eastern MT will add fuel to the system over the central plains leading to an impressive storm.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Fun satellite image this morning but it’s a bit boring for us. The main system has pushed into the central plains. In our area, ridging and drier upper-level northwest flow is taking over.
The “fun” part is that trough over eastern MT will add fuel to the system over the central plains leading to an impressive storm.
Radar this morning – There is nothing in our area.  Mostly light snow with pockets of moderate snow is falling across much of eastern Colorado. Travel will be sketchy in eastern Colorado today.
Radar this morning – There is nothing in our area.  Mostly light snow with pockets of moderate snow is falling across much of eastern Colorado.
Travel will be sketchy in eastern Colorado today.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Pretty sunset alert for tonight! ***

*** Travel over Wolf Creek Pass will be sketchy through Sunday evening. ***

Wolf Creek Pass is snow-packed in spots
Wolf Creek Pass is snow-packed in spots

*** The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued a SPECIAL AVALANCHE ADVISORY for our mountains. The avalanche threat is rated “considerable” and dangerous conditions will persist through the weekend. ***

*** The cold spots will be below zero Monday and Tuesday mornings. ***

*** Wind chills will be in the -10 to -20 range on Christmas Day up at Wolf Creek. ***

This winter storm is sponsored by The Springs Resort!

Rest of Sunday… Drier northwest flow is taking over but clouds will persist through most of the day.  A spotty snow shower or two is possible over the mountains. Up to an inch could fall in a few lucky spots in the mountains.

I see potential for a beautiful Pagosa Country sunset!

Fog could develop tonight in low-lying areas tonight.

Winds… Peaks will be 10-15mph

Temps… Highs Sunday will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the negative single digits to low teens.

Christmas Day through Friday… A spotty snowshower or two is possible over the mountains on Christmas Day, but I don’t expect any snow to accumulate. It’s going to be cold in the mountains on Christmas Day with wind chills in the -10 to -20 range.

Ridging will build over the region during the middle of the week and give us lots of sun and light winds. Temps will be below average Monday and Tuesday, and then near seasonal averages the second half of the week.

Winds… Peaks Monday and Tuesday afternoons will be 10-15mph. Wednesday and Thursday peaks will be 5-10mph.

Temps… Highs on Christmas will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the negative single digits to low teens. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be 0-10. Highs Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Two-week outlook… The weather pattern will start getting active again starting around the 3rd. A more typical El Nino pattern will try to set up.  That’s 10-14 days out so a lot could change between now and then.  Let’s hope that it changes for the better!

Euro ensemble 500mb height anomalies on 5 Jan at 11am – 500mb is at roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall weather pattern. Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate high pressure and boring weather.  Cool colors, blue and green, indicate low pressure and “fun” weather. I added the red arrows to indicate the storm track.  It’s right where we want it.
Euro ensemble 500mb height anomalies on 5 Jan at 11am – 500mb is at roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall weather pattern. Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate high pressure and boring weather.  Cool colors, blue and green, indicate low pressure and “fun” weather. I added the red arrows to indicate the storm track.  It’s right where we want it.
Euro ensemble snow meteogram for Pagosa to 8 Jan – This is read left to right with the current time on the left and future times to the right. Along the top are precip totals. This model is expecting 6.7” of snow by 8 Jan. The bottom graph shows the precip trend. This is encouraging.
Euro ensemble snow meteogram for Pagosa to 8 Jan – This is read left to right with the current time on the left and future times to the right. Along the top are precip totals. This model is expecting 6.7” of snow by 8 Jan. The bottom graph shows the precip trend. This is encouraging.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook valid 31 Dec to 6 Jan is “leaning” towards above average precip in our area. I think the first half of this 6-day period will be pretty dry and then hopefully Mother Nature comes through with a bunch of snow.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook valid 31 Dec to 6 Jan is “leaning” towards above average precip in our area. I think the first half of this 6-day period will be pretty dry and then hopefully Mother Nature comes through with a bunch of snow.

Merry Christmas! My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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