Dry through Saturday – more active next week…

Fall is in the air when these guys serenade us every morning – pic taken 7/22/2026

Thursday – 3 Sep 2026 – 3:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 78, Low: 46, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 24-29%

Wednesday: High: 78, Low: 42, Peak wind: 30mph, Afternoon humidity: 19-24%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	90 / 1955	39	25 / 1973

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – Colorado is outlined in purple. The two main influences on weather are the low off the Pacific NW coast and the ridge (jagged blue line). The low has helped push the monsoon moisture plume, outlined in green, to our south. Air over us is dry and stable. — Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – Colorado is outlined in purple. The two main influences on our weather are the low off the Pacific NW coast and the ridge (jagged blue line). The low has helped push the monsoon moisture plume, outlined in green, to our south. Air over us is dry and stable.

There is nothing on radar in our region Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Recent rain hasn’t been enough to ease fire danger. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Slight chance for an isolated storm through Saturday. ***

*** Scattered storms Sunday through next Friday. The best chance is Sunday and Monday and then again Wednesday and Thursday. ***

Rest of Thursday through Saturday… A low-pressure system impacting the Pacific NW has pushed the monsoon plume out of our area. It’s dry and moderately unstable. There might be an isolated storm or two, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few a raindrops.

Sunday through next Friday… The high will strengthen over the central plains and help push monsoon moisture and instability back into our area.

The best chance for rain is Sunday and Monday and then again Wednesday and Thursday. Hit and miss storms will be capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Friday through next Thursday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s. Friday and Saturday lows will be near 40 to the high 40s. Sunday through next Thursday, lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

WPC precip to next Thursday at noon (10 Sep) shows 1.01” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.50” in our mountains. Other models for the same period: NBM: 1.15 - yay, Euro: 0.04” – booo hisss, GFS: 0.36”, Canadian: 0.49”, Euro ensemble: 0.50”, GFS ensemble: 0.83”, Canadian Ensemble: 0.46”. That’s a big variance. The consensus is 0.35” to 0.50”. It’s all from convective spotty storms, so amounts will vary signifantly. — *WPC precip to next Thursday at noon (10 Sep) shows 1.01” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.50” in our mountains.*

Other models for the same period: NBM: 1.15 – yay, Euro: 0.04” – booo hisss, GFS: 0.36”, Canadian: 0.49”, Euro ensemble: 0.50”, GFS ensemble: 0.83”, Canadian Ensemble: 0.46”. That’s a big variance. The consensus is 0.35” to 0.50”.
*It’s all from convective spotty storms, so amounts will vary significantly.*

10 Sep to 18 Sep… The forecast models vary from a decent monsoon pattern – wet, to transient troughs skirting well to our north – dry. Forecast confidence is low for this period.

*Euro ensemble precip to 18 Sep shows 1.88” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts over the last few days have decreased for the first week and increased for the second week.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 18 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. There’s a slight chance for spotty showers Friday evening but it’s mostly dry. Starting late Monday afternoon and going through the rest of the period there’s a chance for scattered showers. The models are all over the place so I don’t trust them. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 18 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
There’s a slight chance for spotty showers Friday evening but it’s mostly dry. Starting late Monday afternoon and going through the rest of the period there’s a chance for scattered showers. The models are all over the place so I don’t trust them.

The next post will be Saturday evening or Sunday evening.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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