Tommy playing in the Piedra River last night! (select title of post to see picture)
Thursday – 02 Jul 2026 – 8:00pm
Gold Mountain Fire is visible to northwest beyond Cimarrona Peak. See Fire Smoke report at the bottom of this post for more details.
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Wednesday: High: 79, Low: 37, Peak wind: 30mph, Afternoon humidity: 9-13%.
Thursday: High: 79 at 3pm, Low: 37, Peak wind: 26mph, Afternoon humidity: 4-6%.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 82 | 94 / 1990 | 42 | 26 / 1951 |
Precipitation summary… There has not been any precipitation reported in the last 48 hours in our area.
Current satellite and radar…
The BIG picture again: Area of low pressure in in the northwest is weakening, filling and moving to northeast. Trough over Great Basin area has filled. We are still seeing dry air advection into the southwestern United States. Tropical Storm Douglas is far off Baja area moving northwest and away. But feeder bands of tropical moisture are being fed into monsoon plume extending from Mexico Kansas. Ridge of High pressure over the southeast United States. That puts us in the middle with the jet overhead and subjected to squeeze play. Though it is weakening. Once the ridge shifts west, so will the moisture plume.
Radar: There is not any precipitation in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Thursday (today) Air Quality Health Advisory for Ozone from 2:00pm to 10:00pm ***
*** Thursday/Friday: Breezy, Wind Gust to 25mph ***
*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions for entire San Juan NF. NO CAMPFIRES anywhere. ***
***Thunderstorms with some rain, small hail, gusty winds starting Monday***
***New fire starts remain a concern***
*** See Fire/Smoke Report at the bottom of this post***
Thursday and Friday (Jul 2 – Jul 3)… We’ll be predominantly partly cloudy. We’re still under the squeeze play between an area of high pressure anchored over the southeastern United States and the long-wave trough set up over the Great Basin spinning off shortwaves. Upper-level dry flow will be out of the southwest. It will remain sunny, dry, and warm with gusty afternoon winds.
Temps… Highs will slowly warm each day from upper-70s to lo-80s today to upper-70s and mid-80s by tomorrow. We have had dew points in single digits – very dry! Some low have been in lo-30s. We had 34 this morning! Lows will be mid 30s to the mid-40s increasing to upper-30s to upper-40s by tomorrow.
Winds… Stiff Breeze Afternoon gusts to 25mph Thursday & Friday.
Saturday and Sunday (Jul 4th & 5th)… Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Polar Front Jet will be weakening and moving north. The Subtropical Ridge over the southeast will weaken, shift west and reform High pressure center over New Mexico. We’ll be under weak southwest flow. Though we will still be dry and warm.
Temps… Highs Upper-70s to upper-80s. Lows will be Lo-40s to the upper-40s.
Winds… Moderate Breeze with mid-afternoon gusts to 15 to 20mph.
Monday thru Wednesday (Jul 6th to Jul 8th)… The Monsoon tries to set up! We’ll be partly cloudy with mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. We have a chance for thunderstorms and rainshowers with small hail from about noon to 5pm each day.
Monday will be a sputter day… Precipitable water numbers are low at this time. That is we will have more lightning than we have rain. We are so dry on the lowest layers. The first push will have to increase relative humidities before moisture can reach the ground! Very few will see rain on Monday.
The models have really been waffling on exactly where the ridge will set up. Right now, it will set up over our heads on Tuesday, and then drift to the west. We’ll have weak westerly flow. Some will see rain on Tuesday and Wednesday though not a lot. Chances are better one Wednesday.
Temps… Highs Upper-70s to upper-80s. Lows will be Lo-40s to the upper-40s.
Winds… Increasing moisture will finally give us relief from the constant afternoon winds. Light Breeze with mid-afternoon gusts to 15mph. Expect higher gusts associated with thunderstorms.
09 Jul to 17 Jul… The subtropical high will try to set up over central Colorado. Should have monsoon showers each afternoon.
It’s dry through the 5th of July. Just chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms till the 14th of July. It appears that some runs are detecting an uptick around the 14th. We are seeing a few more blues and greens during the last three days.
Precipitable water. Shows some increases after the 5th of July. Ok, the last four days, the 14th to the 17th are looking better. Still want to see more green and some yellow mixed up in there.
Fire and Smoke Update
A number of fires are raging throughout the west. Thanks to our first responders, there are not any active fires being reported in Archuleta County at this time. The fires that could impact us with smoke over the next week are:
The Cottonwood Fire near Beaver Utah (impacted us early Wednesday this past week). Currently at 93,919 acres. May impact us again later in the week as we come under a more westerly flow.
Babylon Fire near Blanding, Utah is at 79,794 acres.
Ferris Fire northeast of Dolores, is at 27,382 acres.
The Pocket Fire near Sedona, Arizona, is at 21,138 acres. It is directly southwest of us so the smoke has been moving our direction, especially overnight.
Gold Mountain Fire near Ouray, Colorado. It is up to 18,005 acres. Gold Mountain Fire pyrocumulus has been visible to the northwest beyond Cimarrona Peak all day today. Amazingly, it is only about 60 miles from here even though it takes hours to drive there.
- 4th of July! Stay hydrated! Come by the Pagosa Weather booth at Yamaguchi Park to get your free water bottle or refill your own bottle at Party in the Park!!! We’ll be there after the parade till around 5 to 6pm. We’ll also have a display on weather history. Enjoy!
- My next post will be Thursday.
– Arleen
