Shower activity is increasing over the mountains Tuesday evening – pic taken 5/5/2026
Tuesday – 5 May 2026 – 7:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Sunday: High: 54, Low: 26, Peak wind: 22mph
Monday: High: 61, Low: 40, Peak wind: 26mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 64 | 83 / 1947 | 28 | 13 / 1965 |
Precipitation summary… A few folks reported 0.01” to 0.03” rain Sunday night – just enough to wet the ground.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the mountains above 10,000ft. Up to 10” of snow and wind gusts to 35mph are expected 6pm Tuesday to 6pm Wednesday. ***
*** The Pagosa area will get a little precip Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening. ***
*** Hard freeze Wednesday night. ***
*** Thursday through next Tuesday there will be lots of sun, pleasant temps, and breezy afternoons. ***
Forecast details…
Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening… A low-pressure system will move through southern AZ and NM while a trough moves north to south across Colorado. Moisture and instability will increase so we’ll see scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.
Snow levels Tuesday evening will be around 9,000ft and then drop to around 8,000ft by sunrise Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon snow levels will climb back up to 8,800ft. A thunderstorm or strong shower could briefly bring snow down to 7,800ft.
Precip forecast…
Mountains above 9,500ft: 5-10”
Pagosa Springs area: 0.05” to 0.25”
Wednesday night through next Tuesday… I expect most of this period to be dry, but there’s a slight chance for a few spotty showers over the weekend, mostly over the mountains.
Temps…
Tuesday night lows will be in the low to high 30s.
Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s and lows will be near 20 to the high 20s.
Thursday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.
Monday and next Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in mid 30s to low 40s.
Winds…
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-35mph in the high country.
Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph in the Pagosa area and 35-45mph in the high country.
Sunday, Monday, and next Tuesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa and 25-35mph in the high country.
12 May to 20 May… We’ll be mostly dry with pleasant temps and breezy afternoons.
After the storm tonight and Wednesday, it’s dry on Friday. Over the weekend there’s a slight chance for a spotty light shower or two. It’s dry the middle of next week. The rest of the period could get more active, but the models are all over the place so I don’t trust them.
The next post will be Thursday afternoon.
– Shawn
