Two rounds of precip Friday night into Tuesday afternoon…

Fly-fishing one of our pretty streams in pleasant spring weather  – pic taken 4/9/2026

Fly-fishing one of our pretty streams in pleasant spring weather  – pic taken 4/9/2026

Thursday – 9 Apr 2026 – 5:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 63, Low: 30, Peak wind: 23mph

Wednesday: High: 65, Low: 27, Peak wind: 25mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5775 / 1989236 / 1973

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite late Thursday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The “dirty ridge” – jagged blue line – will move through our area tonight and then moisture will gradually increase from the southwest. Unfortunately there isn’t much precip associated with the clouds over the southwest US.
Water vapor satellite late Thursday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The “dirty ridge” – jagged blue line – will move through our area tonight and then moisture will gradually increase from the southwest. Unfortunately there isn’t much precip associated with the clouds over the southwest US.

Late Thursday afternoon on radar there have been a few light showers over our mountains but it’s clearing as I type.

Forecast highlights…

*** Partly cloudy and dry through Friday afternoon. ***

*** Round 1 of precip Friday evening into Saturday evening. ***

*** Round 2 of precip late Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. ***

*** Expect winter driving conditions on Wolf Creek Pass. ***

*** Hard freeze Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Thursday through Friday afternoon… A little bit of moisture and instability will kick up a few scattered showers each afternoon over the mountains, otherwise it will be dry.

Friday evening into Saturday evening… System 1 will move through. Unfortunately it will be weakening so precip amounts will be light.

Snow levels: Starting close to 11,000ft and then dropping to around 10,500ft

Precip amounts:

Mountains above 10,500ft: 1-3” of snow

Pagosa Springs area: up to 0.25” of rain

Saturday night into early Monday morning… A quick moving transient ridge will keep us mostly dry. There’s a slight chance for an isolated shower over the mountains.

Late Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon… System 2 will move through. This one will have better storm energy and moisture, so we’ll get more precip.

Snow levels on Monday will be 8,000ft to 8,600ft and on Tuesday they’ll be 7,000ft to 7,600ft. Temps will be above freezing for much of this period so snow will struggle to accumulate.

Precip amounts:

Mountains above 9,000ft: 4-7”

Pagosa area above 8,000ft: 1-2” of snow and 0.25” to 0.50” of rain

Pagosa area below 8,000ft: up to 1” of snow and 0.25” to 0.50” of rain

Tuesday night through next Friday… A transient ridge with drier air will give us mostly sunny skies and temps slightly above average.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.

Friday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the high 30s.

Monday highs will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s ***.

Tuesday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and *** lows will be in the high teens to the mid 20s ***.

Wednesday highs will be in the low 50s to near 60 and lows will be in the *** lows will be in the low to high 20s ***.

Next Thursday and next Friday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Winds…

Friday  Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-40mph in the high country.

Sunday and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 35-45mph in the high country.

Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-40mph in the high country.

Wednesday, next Thursday, and next Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

NBM precip to Tuesday evening (14 Apr) shows 0.62” near Pagosa and up to 1.00” near Wolf Creek Pass.Precip amounts are trending down.
NBM precip to Tuesday evening (14 Apr) shows 0.62” near Pagosa and up to 1.00” near Wolf Creek Pass. Precip amounts are trending down.
NBM snowfall to Tuesday evening shows 0.40” near Pagosa and 6-10” near Wolf Creek Pass.
NBM snowfall to Tuesday evening shows 0.40” near Pagosa and 6-10” near Wolf Creek Pass.

16 Apr to 24 Apr… It starts off dry and then there’s a lot of uncertainty. I’m leaning toward the pattern getting more dry.

Euro ensemble precip to 24 Apr shows 1.66” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts are trending down.
Euro ensemble precip to 24 Apr shows 1.66” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts are trending down.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 24 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. Round 1 is Friday evening into Saturday evening. Round 2 is Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Then it’s dry through next Friday. For the rest of the period there is a lot of uncertainty.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 24 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
Round 1 is Friday evening into Saturday evening. Round 2 is Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Then it’s dry through next Friday. For the rest of the period there is a lot of uncertainty.

The next post will be on Saturday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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