Mostly dry through the weekend – Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday…

Love this view of snow-covered Cimarrona Peak from the Williams Creek bridge – pic taken 4/3/2026

Friday – 3 Apr 2026 – 4:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 45, Low: 36, Peak wind: 40mph

Thursday: High: 52, Low: 29, Peak wind: 22mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
55	70 / 1959	21	3 / 1975

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek Ski Area ended up with 19” from the recent storm

Much of southwest CO and northwest NM got a much-needed soaking!

*CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports ranged from 0.40” to 1.89”. Note that La Plata County and down towards Aztec and Farmington also got a decent soaking.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The tail-end of a trough is moving through the area but its only impact to us is gusty winds. The ridge along the west coast will keep us dry through the weekend.

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Low temps below FREEZING Saturday and Sunday mornings. NOTE: The average last freeze is 31 May. Don’t be fooled by the recent heat wave! ***

*** Mostly sunny and mostly dry through the weekend. ***

*** A few more clouds and a few more scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. ***

*** Next weekend looks active but details are unclear. ***

Forecast details…

Friday night through Sunday… A weak ridge will build over the region during the weekend and keep us dry.

Monday and Tuesday… A little surge of moisture and instability will kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, especially over the mountains. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Snow levels will be 9,500-10,000ft. Wolf Creek will get 1-3” of snow.

Wednesday through Thursday morning… A transient ridge will move through and temporarily dry us out.

Thursday afternoon through next weekend… A low pressure system will slowly move west to east through AZ and NM. Timing and precip amounts are uncertain. If this system tracks too far to our south, it will be a dud for us.

My way too early and uncertain snow forecast for Wolf Creek: 4-6”.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the mid-teens to the mid 20s.

Saturday through Tuesday highs will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s. Saturday night lows will be near 20 to the high 20s. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.

Next Friday through next weekend highs will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Winds…

Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 25-30mph in the high country.

Wednesday and Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 35-40mph in the high country.

Next Friday through next weekend, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

*NBM precip to Tuesday evening shows 0.17” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.40” in our mountains.*

NBM precip through next weekend (12 Apr) shows 0.55” near Pagosa and up to 1” in our mountains. This would be 6-10” of snow for Wolf Creek. — NBM precip through next weekend (12 Apr) shows 0.55” near Pagosa and up to 1” in our mountains. **This would be 6-10” of snow for Wolf Creek.**

10 Apr to 18 Apr… The first part of this period looks active with chances for precip and the second part looks less active and more dry.

Euro ensemble precip to 18 Apr shows 1.23” in the Pagosa area. After a lengthy period of record high temps and worsening drought conditions across much of the western US, this is great to see! — *Euro ensemble precip to 18 Apr shows 1.23” in the Pagosa area. After a lengthy period of record high temps and worsening drought conditions across much of the western US, this is good to see!*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 18 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry through Monday morning. Then there are scattered showers with low precip amounts Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Wednesday through Thursday morning should be mostly dry. Thursday night through next weekend looks active but the details are unclear. There is no consensus for the last 3 or 4 days. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 18 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through Monday morning. Then there are scattered showers with low precip amounts Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Wednesday through Thursday morning should be mostly dry. Thursday night through next weekend looks active but the details are unclear. There is no consensus for the last 3 or 4 days.

Euro ensemble 15-day total snow for Wolf Creek – It’s dry through most of Monday and then 2” of snow is possible Monday afternoon and Tuesday. It’s mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday and then active Friday into the following Monday with 5-6” of snow possible.

The next post will be on Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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