Snow is coming! – Graphic produced by Grand Junction NWS
Monday – 16 Feb 2026 – 5:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Saturday: High: 38, Low: 29, Peak wind: 7mph
Sunday: High: 52, Low: 24, Peak wind: 8mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 42 | 59 / 1981 | 8 | -24 / 1949 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the San Juan River Basin. This includes Pagosa Springs. 4-8” of snow and winds gusting to 40mph are expected 11pm Monday to 5am Thursday. ***
*** WINTER WEATHER WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft. This includes Wolf Creek and Cumbres Passes. Up to 24” of snow and winds gusting to 70mph are expected 11pm Monday to 11pm Wednesday. ***
*** AVALANCHE WATCH for the mountains valid 9am Wednesday to 5pm Friday. ***
*** A weaker round of snow is possible Thursday night into Friday evening. ***
Forecast details…
Monday night through Wednesday evening… The jet stream, storm energy, moisture, and orographic lift are lining up for two decent rounds of snow.
Timing…
Late Monday evening: The first scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains.
After midnight Monday: Snow showers will increase.
Round 1 – Tuesday around 5am into late Tuesday morning: Bands of moderate to heavy snow will move through. There’s also a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening: There will be a lull with scattered snowshowers, mostly over the mountains.
Round 2 – Early Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening: Bands of moderate to heavy snow will move through. There’s also a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Snow levels… Monday at sunset: around 8,500ft. Midnight Monday: around 8,000ft. Sunrise Tuesday: around 7,000ft and then below 7,000ft for the rest of this period.
Round 1 Snow totals Monday night through Tuesday evening…
Wolf Creek area: 8-12”
Pagosa area: 2-4” – most will fall between 5am and noon Tuesday
Round 2 Snow totals Early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening…
Wolf Creek area: 10-16”
Pagosa area: 4-8”
I’m being a little more conservative with Wolf Creek.
Wednesday night through Thursday evening… There will be a lull as a transient ridge moves through. Scattered snowshowers are possible, mostly over the mountains. Snow amounts will be minimal.
Thursday night through Friday evening… Round 3. The final trough will move through. It won’t have much moisture, and the trajectory isn’t good for us. The best chance for snowshowers is early Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 4-8”
Pagosa area: 2-4”
Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday… A ridge will build over the region. We should see lots of sun and a warming trend.
Temps…
Monday night lows will be in the low 20s to near 30.
Tuesday highs will be in the mid 30s to near 40 and lows will be near 20 to the mid 20s.
Wednesday highs will be near 30 to mid-30s and lows will be in mid single digits to mid teens.
Thursday and Friday highs will be in the high 20s to low 30s and lows will be in the high single digits to the mid teens.
Saturday highs will be in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid single digits to the mid teens.
Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be near 10 to the high teens.
Next Monday highs will be near 50 to the mid 50s and lows will be in the mid teens to mid 20s.
Winds…
Early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon wind gusts will be 30-40mph in the Pagosa area and 50-70mph in the mountains. *** Expect white-out conditions on Wolf Creek Pass. ***
Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 35mph in the Pagosa area and 45-60mph in the high country. *** Expect white-out conditions on Wolf Creek Pass. ***
Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa area and 30-40mph in the high country.
Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday, each afternoon, gusts will be around 15mph in the Pagosa area and 25-30mph in the high country.
23 Feb to 3 Mar… 24 to 26 Feb a moderate system could move through. The rest of this period looks dry.
I’ll try to do a post each day through Thursday. Keep an eye out on Facebook for quick updates.
– Shawn
