Tommy was happy to see a few snowflakes yesterday near Williams Creek Reservoir! – Pic taken 2/11/2026 at 11:40am
Thursday – 12 Feb 2026 – 2:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Tuesday: High: 55, Low: 19, Peak wind: 23mph
Wednesday: High: 46, Low: 30, Peak wind: 8mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 41 | 59 / 1957 | 7 | -13 / 1966 |
Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported 3” of snow. Most of the Pagosa area got a trace of snow, but a few folks above 7,800ft got an inch.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** Storm 2 is Friday morning into early Saturday morning. Expect 3-5” of snow for Wolf Creek and up to 1” of snow in the Pagosa area above 7,800ft. ***
*** Storm 3 is Monday night through Wednesday. It looks good for snow in Pagosa and should be a decent storm for our mountains. ***
*** The best chance for snow is early Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. *** Strong winds, and poor visibility due to falling snow and blowing snow will make travel conditions bad, especially in the mountains. ***
*** There could be a storm 4 late next week, but it looks pretty wimpy. ***
Forecast details…
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night… There is a brief break between systems. A few spotty showers are possible, mostly over the mountains, but precip amounts will be minimal.
Friday morning into early Saturday morning… Storm 2 will move through. It’s similar to the first storm. The best chance for precip is late Friday morning to around sunset Friday and then spotty showers will gradually come to an end early Saturday morning.
Snow levels… Sunrise Friday: around 7,800ft. Friday afternoon: around 8,500ft. Late Friday evening: around 8,000ft. Sunrise Saturday: around 7,200ft
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 3-5”
Pagosa area above 7,800ft: a dusting to 1”
Pagosa area below 7,800ft: mostly “rainflakes” – a dusting of snow at best
Saturday morning through Monday morning… A transient ridge will move through. Skies will be variably cloudy and we’ll stay dry.
Monday afternoon through next Wednesday… Storm 3 will move through. The jet stream, storm energy, moisture, and orographic lift are trying to line up for a decent storm.
The best chance for precip is early Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. *** Strong winds, and poor visibility due to falling snow and blowing snow will make travel conditions bad, especially in the mountains. ***
Snow levels… Monday at sunset: around 8,000 to 8,500ft. Midnight Monday: around 8,000ft. Sunrise Tuesday: 7,000 to 7,500ft. Late Tuesday morning and the rest of this period: below 7,000ft.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 14-20”
Pagosa area above 7,600ft: 5-10”
Pagosa area below 7,600ft: 3-6”
*** The details of this storm are still unclear. I’ll continue to make adjustments as the data gets more reliable. ***
Forecast snow amounts vary considerably. I’m still being conservative with Wolf Creek snow until the models line up better.
Temps…
Thursday night lows will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Friday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be near 20 to near 30.
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday highs will be in the high 40s to mid 50s. Lows Saturday and Sunday will be in the high teens to mid 20s. Lows Monday night will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday highs will be in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low to mid 20s.
Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds…
Friday and Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be around 10mph near Pagosa and around 20mph in the high country.
Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph near Pagosa and 25-30mph in the high country.
Monday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph near Pagosa and 40-50mph in the high country.
Monday night into Tuesday afternoon wind gusts will be 25-35mph in the Pagosa area and 50-60mph in the mountains. *** Expect white-out conditions on Wolf Creek Pass. ***
Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa area and 40-45mph in the high country.
Next Thursday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa area and 35-40mph in the high country.
19 Feb to 27 Feb… The first few days of this period will be active and then there is a lot of uncertainty. Unfortunately, I think the evil ridge will try to build back over the southwest US.
Keep an eye out on Facebook for quick updates. Otherwise, the next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
