Snow is on the way …

Snow is increasing and visibility is dropping on Wolf Creek Pass at 2:30pm – CDOT web cam on 1/23/2026

Snow is increasing and visibility is dropping on Wolf Creek Pass at 2:30pm – CDOT web cam on 1/23/2026

Friday – 23 Jan 2026 – 2:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 49, Low: 13, Peak Wind: 8mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3855 / 19811-28 / 1955

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Lots of moisture is streaming into our area from the southwest. The low will stay well to our south. The trough will move through our area Saturday evening.
Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Lots of moisture is streaming into our area from the southwest. The low will stay well to our south. The trough will move through our area Saturday evening.
Radar at 2:30pm Friday – Bands of showers are moving west to east and southwest to northeast across the region.
Radar at 2:30pm Friday – Bands of showers are moving west to east and southwest to northeast across the region.

Forecast highlights…

*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the PAGOSA SPRINGS area. 4-8” of snow is expected 5pm Friday to 5am Sunday. ***

*** A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft. This includes WOLF CREEK PASS. 12-24” of snow and winds gusting to 35mph are expected 11am Friday to 5 am Sunday. ***

*** Expect winter driving conditions Friday evening into Sunday morning. ***

Thanks to The Springs Resort for sponsoring this snow storm!
Thanks to The Springs Resort for sponsoring this snow storm!

*** Most of Sunday and through next week will be dry. ***

Forecast details…

Friday afternoon into early Sunday morning… The ingredients are lining up for a decent winter storm.

Timing… Scattered snowshowers over the mountains will gradually increase through Friday afternoon. *** The best chance for snow and most of the accumulation will occur Friday evening into Saturday afternoon. *** Saturday evening into early Sunday morning snowshowers will become more spotty and gradually come to an end.

My forecast snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: 12-18”

Pagosa area: 4-8”

Most of Sunday and the rest of next week… A ridge will build over the region and dry us out.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the low to high 20s.

Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to high 30s and lows will be near 0 to the low teens.

Sunday highs will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be -10 to 5.

Monday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be -5 to 10.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low single digits to the mid-teens.

Wednesday, Thursday, and next Friday highs will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Winds…

Friday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph in the Pagosa area and 35-40mph in the high country.

Saturday and Sunday, afternoon gusts will be 15-20 in the Pagosa area and 35-40mph in the high country.

Monday through next Friday, each afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and around 20mph in the high country.

NWS snow forecast to Sunday at 5pm shows 5” near Pagosa Springs and 18-24” near Wolf Creek. I’m expecting a little less for Wolf Creek.
NWS snow forecast to Sunday at 5pm shows 5” near Pagosa Springs and 18-24” near Wolf Creek.
I’m expecting a little less for Wolf Creek.

30 Jan to 7 Feb… I see no significant storms on the horizon. Sadly it looks mostly dry.

Euro ensemble 15-day 24-hour precip amounts – This shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. It clearly shows our Friday/Saturday storm. Then it hints at a weak system around 30 Jan and another around 3 & 4 Jan, but it’s not encouraging.
Euro ensemble 15-day 24-hour precip amounts – This shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. It clearly shows our Friday/Saturday storm. Then it hints at a weak system around 30 Jan and another around 3 & 4 Jan, but it’s not encouraging.

I’ll try to do a weather post each day to Sunday. Keep an eye out for quick posts on Facebook Friday and Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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