Dry for us for a while…

Conditions are pretty good up at Wolf Creek! – Pic taken 12/5/2025

Saturday – 6 Dec 2025 – 2:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 29, Low: 16, Peak Wind: 9mph

Friday: High: 31, Low: 15, Peak Wind: 6mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
42	69 / 1906	8	-19 / 1953

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Current satellite and radar…

Infrared satellite loop Saturday afternoon – Strong flow out of the northwest is pushing moisture into northern Colorado and the northern Colorado mountains are getting significant snow. Pagosa is on the down-slope, dry side of the San Juan Mountains.

*Radar at 1pm Saturday afternoon – Showers are being pushed into the northern Colorado mountains out of the northwest.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Saturday there will be a few scattered snowflakes. Our mountains could get an inch. ***

*** Lots of sun, mostly dry, and a warming trend the next two weeks. ***

Forecast details…

Saturday afternoon through the following weekend… Saturday moisture is streaming into Colorado from the northwest. We’ll stay mostly cloudy and see a few scattered snowflakes in the area. An inch of snow is possible along The Divide in our area.

A Rex block will set up off the southern West Coast and keep the dreaded, dry flow out of the northwest over us. Temps will slowly warm above average. By late next week, high temps will be in the 50s.

Temps…

Saturday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Sunday highs will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.

Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Thursday through next weekend highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph each day.

*The “official” NWS snow forecast shows up to an inch along The Divide in our mountains and none for Pagosa on Saturday.*

*NBM snow to 14 Dec at 11pm – Our mountains might get an inch of snow this Saturday, but we stay mostly dry. The northwest flow pattern favors the northern CO mountains.*

The 8-14 day period… Upper level flow will remain in a La Nina-like pattern. The storm track over our region will be out of the northwest which means northern CO is favored and we might get a few scraps.

There are signs that the pattern could get more active towards the end of this period, but it’s not too encouraging.

This is the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.21”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.12”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble 0.31”. In the bottom right, Canadian ensemble shows 0.19”.

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 3.7”. This is quite discouraging.*

The next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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