Dry through most of Saturday and then SNOW…

It was a gray day in Pagosa, but the weather was fantastic up at Wolf Creek!  See the low clouds left of Treasure Mountain? – Photo taken 11/24/2025

It was a gray day in Pagosa, but the weather was fantastic up at Wolf Creek!  See the low clouds left of Treasure Mountain? – Photo taken 11/24/2025

Monday – 24 Nov 2025 – 6:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 54, Low: 26, Peak Wind: 8mph

Sunday: High: 39, Low: 32, Peak Wind: 8mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4661 / 196312-20 / 1931

Precipitation summary… We got some pretty good moisture Saturday and Sunday.

Wolf Creek reported 9” of snow from the recent storm.

CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals ranged from 0.30” to 0.56”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals across Archuleta County ranged from 0.30” to 0.56”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day snow totals across Archuleta County ranged from none to 1.8”. The snow level briefly dropped to around 7,700ft but snow had trouble sticking.
CoCoRaHS 2-day snow totals across Archuleta County ranged from none to 1.8”. The snow level briefly dropped to around 7,700ft but snow had trouble sticking.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday around sunset – The ridge along the coast, jagged blue line, will give us dry weather through most of Saturday and then the pattern will get more active.
Water vapor satellite Monday around sunset – The ridge along the coast, jagged blue line, will give us dry weather through most of Saturday and then the pattern will get more active.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Wolf Creek Pass is scheduled to CLOSE on Tuesday, 25 November, from roughly 7:30am to 10:30am to place avalanche mitigation equipment.

*** Monday through most of Saturday will be dry. ***

*** Late 29 Nov to 2 Dec looks promising for snow. ***

Forecast details…

Tuesday through next Saturday afternoon… Ridging will give us lots of sun and temps above average.

Saturday night through next Tuesday… The next low-pressure system will move through. Good news… this will be a cold system with mostly snow!

Rough snow forecast…

Mountains: 18-24”

Valley above 7,500ft: 8-14”

Valley below 7,500ft: 6-10”

*** I’ll adjust snow amounts and get more specific about timing as the data gets better. ***

Temps…

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Thursday and Friday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Saturday highs will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Sunday, next Monday, and next Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to near 40 and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Tuesday through Friday, each afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph.

Saturday and Sunday winds will gust 15-20mph.

Next Monday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

NBM snow to next Tuesday at 11pm shows 7.3” near Pagosa and 25-30” near Wolf Creek.
NBM snow to next Tuesday at 11pm shows 7.3” near Pagosa and 25-30” near Wolf Creek. Right now this looks reasonable to me, but the forecast models are fluctuating considerably.

The 8-14 day period… We’ll be dry until around 29 Nov and then the weather pattern will get more active and cooler. It looks promising for snow.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 9 Dec at 5am shows 12-16” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 14-18”. This is all expected after 29 Nov.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 9 Dec at 5am shows 12-16” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 14-18”. This is all expected after 29 Nov.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 26”. It’s dry this week and then more active next week.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 26”. It’s dry this week and then more active next week.

Unless there’s a significant change to my forecast, the next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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