Mountain snow and valley rain on Sunday and then dry most of the week…

It was a fantastic day up at the lake! – Photo taken 11/22/2025

Saturday – 22 Nov 2025 – 6:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 48, Low: 32, Peak Wind: 9mph

Friday: High: 49, Low: 33, Peak Wind: 12mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
45	60 / 1989	12	-8 / 1985

Precipitation summary… A few spotty showers hit a few folks in Archuleta County yesterday.

Wolf Creek ended up getting 12” total from the last storm.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Saturday morning ranged from none to 0.15”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop roughly 3:15pm to 4:15pm Saturday – The low is spinning over the Baja Peninsula and will move northeast. It’s expected to track nearly over our heads Sunday afternoon. There is a lot of moisture ahead of the low moving up from the north. — Water vapor satellite loop roughly 3:15pm to 4:15pm Saturday – The low is spinning over the Baja Peninsula and will move northeast. It’s expected to track nearly over our heads Sunday afternoon. There is a lot of moisture ahead of the low moving up from the south.

*Radar at 4:30pm Saturday – Bands of showers are moving north ahead of the low. The low will track northeast over the next 24 hours.*

Forecast highlights…

*** There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the eastern San Juan Mountains. This includes Wolf Creek Pass. 5-10” of snow is expected 2am to 5pm Sunday. ***

*** The snow level will bounce around between 8,000ft and 8,500ft so this will mostly be a “rainflake” event in the Pagosa Springs area. ***

*** Wolf Creek Pass is scheduled to CLOSE on Tuesday, 25 November, from roughly 7:30am to 10:30am to place avalanche mitigation equipment.

*** Monday through Friday will be dry with temps around 5 degrees above average. ***

*** Late 29 Nov to 2 Dec looks promising for snow. ***

Forecast details…

Early Sunday morning to late Sunday evening… The next low pressure system will take a more favorable track than I was expecting. This will result in another round of mountain snow and valley “rainflakes”.

Snow levels…

Early Sunday to sunset Sunday: 8,000ft to 8,500ft

Sunset Sunday to midnight Sunday: dropping to around 7,500ft – most of the precip will be done

Snow forecast…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 5-10”

Valley above 7,800ft: a dusting to 1”

Valley below 7,800ft: a dusting

Monday through next Saturday afternoon… Ridging will give us lots of sun and temps slightly above average.

Next Saturday night through next Tuesday… The next low-pressure system will move through. Good news… this will be a cold system with mostly snow!

Very rough first guess snow forecast…

Mountains: 18-24”

Valley above 7,500ft: 8-14”

Valley below 7,500ft: 6-10”

*** I’ll adjust snow amounts and timing as the data gets better. ***

Temps…

Sunday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Thursday and Friday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Next Saturday highs will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds…

Each afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph.

*NWS NDFD snow forecast zoomed into our region shows up to 1” over the higher parts of the valley and 8” for Wolf Creek Pass. This looks good to me.*

22 Nov 2025 pm CPC 8 14 day heavy precip outlook — *The CPC 8-14 day heavy precip outlook indicates heavy snow over the Colorado mountains 30 Nov to 2 Dec.*

The 8-14 day period… We’ll be dry until around 29 Nov and then the weather pattern will get more active and cooler. It looks promising for snow.

*On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 7 Dec at 5am shows 11-16” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 10-15”. Most of this expected starting around 29 Nov.*

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 25”. There’s a round of snow on Sunday, then it’s dry through Friday, and then potentially a decent round of snow.*

Unless there’s a significant change to my forecast, the next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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