One more round of rough weather this evening and then smooth sailing…

Pagosa Peak almost looked like a volcano last night – taken on 10/14/2025

Wednesday – 15 Oct 2025 – 3:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 66, Low: 46, Peak Wind: 23mph, 24hr precip: 0.01”

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
64	82 / 1958	26	14 / 1966

Precipitation summary and river levels…

Precip was spotty in the last 24 hours and rain totals are much less than the previous days.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports from Wednesday morning ranged from a trace to 0.25”.*

*CoCoRaHS rain totals for 10-15 Oct range from 2.47” to 7.05”. For perspective, October average precip for Pagosa Springs is 2.27” and 4.39” for Wolf Creek Pass.*

*The San Juan River has come down quite a bit but is still quite high at 9.12ft and 3,200cfs.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop Wednesday afternoon – The low is about to enter western UT and is moving towards the northeast. The leading trough is expected to move through our area around midnight. Note the band of showers starting to form in our area.

Radar at 3:12pm Wednesday – A band of strong storms is developing over east La Plata County and west Archuleta County. The band will move east over the next 2-3 hours while individual cells move rapidly towards the north-northeast. The are no severe storms as I type, but ingredients exist for potential severe thunderstorms. — Radar at 3:12pm Wednesday – A band of strong storms is developing over east La Plata County and west Archuleta County. The band will move east over the next 2-3 hours while individual cells move rapidly towards the north-northeast.
**The are no severe storms as I type, but ingredients exist for potential severe thunderstorms.**

Forecast highlights…

*** Wednesday afternoon into the early evening there is potential for severe thunderstorms with bursts of very heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and lightning. ***

*** There is a FLOOD ADVISORY for the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs valid until early Thursday afternoon. As of 8am Wednesday, the river is at 9.5ft and is expected to crest around 10ft Wednesday evening. This is just short of “minor flood stage” at 10.5ft. ***

*** There is also a FLOOD ADVISORY for the Piedra River and its tributaries valid until 10am Thursday. ***

*** Wolf Creek Pass could get up to 1″ of snow Wednesday night. Temps will drop below freezing and the road could get slick. ***

*** Hard freeze in the Pagosa Springs area Thursday and Friday nights with temps in the low to high 20s. ***

*** Thursday afternoon into next week there will be lots of sun and dry weather. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Wednesday to early Thursday morning… A strong trough will move through our area around midnight. Ingredients are in place for a few scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Conditions will clear quickly early Thursday morning.

*** Wednesday afternoon into the early evening there is potential for severe thunderstorms with bursts of very heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and lightning. ***

Late Thursday morning into next week… Ridging will build over the region and give us lots of sun, dry weather. Temps will be 5 degrees below average to near average.

Temps…

Wednesday night low will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s. ***

Saturday, Sunday and Monday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Tuesday and next Wednesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Winds…

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Tuesday and next Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

*** As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm. ***

*The Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening shows a 2-4% for a TORNADO in our area. Tornados are very rare in Archuleta County and I do not expect one.*

*NWS forecast precip zoomed into our area shows 0.40” near Pagosa and up to 0.80” for Wolf Creek Pass. The heaviest precip will fall between late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.*

The 8-14 day period… The models show a weak system around 20-22 Oct but are otherwise mostly dry.

On the top, Euro AI ensemble precip to 30 Oct at 6am shows 1.21” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.63”. That’s a big difference. I think it will be dry most of this period.

The next post will be tomorrow. It will include a storm summary, Navajo Lake levels, river levels, and the updated drought map.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

P. Bennett says:

October 15, 2025 at 9:50 pm

Thank you Pagosa Weather team for providing updates throughout the last very wet week. We depended on your information to help with travel decisions and activity planning all week. We look forward to reading all of your posts, in all kinds of weather.

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  October 16, 2025 at 8:05 am
  
  Thank you for your kind words! Arleen & Shawn
  
  Reply

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