More flooding…

TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN – San Juan County NM Fire & Rescue on 10/10/2025

TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN – San Juan County NM Fire & Rescue on 10/10/2025

Monday – 13 Oct 2025 – 4:10pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 60, Low: 39, Minimum relative humidity: 39%, Peak Wind: 22mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6579 / 19552712 / 1997

Precipitation summary… Rain started shortly before sunrise this morning and has been falling on and off all day.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports from Monday morning ranged from 0.09” to 0.52”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports from Monday morning ranged from 0.09” to 0.52”.
CoCoRaHS 4-day rain totals range from 1.67” to 4.36”.  For perspective, October average precip is 2.27”.
CoCoRaHS 4-day rain totals range from 1.67” to 4.36”.  For perspective, October average precip is 2.27”.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The remnants of TS Raymond, circled in green, will move through our area early Tuesday morning. Then the low along the West Coast will push occasional bands of showers and thunderstorms through the area into Thursday morning.
Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The remnants of TS Raymond, circled in green, will move through our area early Tuesday morning. Then the low along the West Coast will push occasional bands of showers and thunderstorms through the area into Thursday morning.
Radar zoomed into our area at 3:36pm Monday – A strong cell moved through the Arboles area moved northeast towards Pagosa Springs. It’s fairly quiet behind this band this of showers. Until…
Radar zoomed into our area at 3:36pm Monday – A strong cell moved through the Arboles area and then moved northeast towards Pagosa Springs. It’s fairly quiet behind this band of showers. Until…
Radar for the Four Corners region at 3:40pm – The large area of showers and thunderstorms circled in black will bring us periods of heavy rain from roughly 6pm to 2am.
Radar for the Four Corners region at 3:40pm – *** The large area of showers and thunderstorms circled in black will bring us periods of heavy rain from roughly 6pm to 2am.***

Forecast highlights…

*** FLOOD WARNING is out until early Wednesday morning for the SAN JUAN RIVER in Pagosa Springs. As of 3pm Monday, the river was at 9.82ft. “Bankfull stage” is at 8.5ft, “action stage” is at 9.48ft, and “minor flood” stage is at 10.5ft. The river is forecast to rise above flood stage Monday evening and to crest around 12ft early Tuesday morning. ***

*** FLOOD WARNING is out until 3pm Wednesday for the PIEDRA RIVER and its tributaries. ***

*** FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning. This includes all rivers, creeks, and low-lying areas in the region. ***

*** More rain through Thursday morning. The heaviest rain will fall until sunrise Tuesday. Tuesday morning through Thursday morning expect hit and miss showers and thunderstorms with brief periods of heavy rain. ***

*** Thursday afternoon through the weekend there will be lots of sun and dry weather. ***

*** Hard freeze Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Monday to Tuesday around sunrise… The remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond are impacting us. Precipitable water, the amount of water vapor available for precip, is 250% to 300% average. Expect periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. This is the period that we will get the most rain.

Tuesday morning to Thursday morning… A slow-moving low-pressure system will wobble to our west and push rounds of storm energy and moisture through our area.  Upslope winds out of the southwest, precipitable water 150% to 200%, and moderate to high instability will fuel hit and miss showers and thunderstorms.

*** Storms will be fast-moving and cause brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Thursday afternoon through next weekend… Ridging will build over the region and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and temps 5-10 degrees below average.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s. ***

Sunday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds…

Monday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons gusts will be around 25mph.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM forecast radar from 3pm Monday to 6am Tuesday shows bands of heavy rain to around 2am and then shower activity gradually decreases and gets more spotty.
NBM forecast radar from 3pm Monday to 6am Tuesday shows bands of heavy rain to around 2am and then shower activity gradually decreases and gets more spotty. Pagosa Springs is PSO.
NBM precip to 6am Tuesday shows 1.27” near Pagosa and up to 3” in our mountains.
NBM precip to 6am Tuesday shows 1.27” near Pagosa and up to 3” in our mountains.
NBM precip from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday show 0.55” near Pagosa and up to 1.40” in our mountains.
NBM precip from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday show 0.55” near Pagosa and up to 1.40” in our mountains.
NBM precip from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday 0.27” near Pagosa and up to 0.50” in our mountains.
NBM precip from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday 0.27” near Pagosa and up to 0.50” in our mountains.
NBM total precip for the whole period shows 2.09” near Pagosa and up to 4.50” in our mountains.
NBM total precip for the whole period shows 2.09” near Pagosa and up to 4.50” in our mountains.

The 8-14 day period… The models show a weak system around 20-22 Oct but are otherwise mostly dry.

On the top, Euro AI ensemble precip to 28 Oct at 6am shows 3.38” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.87”. That’s a big difference. Most of this is expected in the first 3 days (13-16 Oct), and then it’s fairly dry.
On the top, Euro AI ensemble precip to 28 Oct at 6am shows 3.38” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.87”. That’s a big difference.
Most of this is expected in the first 3 days (13-16 Oct), and then it’s fairly dry.

The next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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9 Responses

  2. 3.94” at my home station up mill creek for yesterday’s storm! 3.87” total for Priscilla! Big hail storm rolled in at 1538 and left some good dents in the vehicles.

    Reply

  3. Love your reporting!!! We are in Creede and it’s the only forecast that’s fairly accurate!!! Thanks again!

    Reply

    1. Beth, thank you for following us from Creede! Weather in Pagosa is a little challenging… Creede is immensely complex! I’m glad you find our information helpful.

      Reply

  4. The strong cell noted in the 1536 hrs radar image gave us 0.5 inches of rain in 20 minutes along with 1/4-inch hail in Meadows 4. The cat was scared out of his wits.

    Reply

    1. Thank you for the report! Your 1/4″ hail is the largest reported. Did you do CoCoRaHS hail report? I know you’ll annotate in your comments tomorrow. You (or Leah) are one of the good ones in making remarks. Thank you!

      Reply

      1. I filled out a CoCoRaHS significant weather report. I don’t run a hail board but I can report there as well.

        Reply

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