Tommy next to the flooded San Juan River in Pagosa Springs – pic taken 10/11/2025
Sunday – 12 Oct 2025 – 5:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Saturday: High: 55, Low: 49, Minimum relative humidity: 88%, Peak Wind: 21mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 66 | 80 / 1991 | 28 | 17 / 1913 |
Precipitation summary… See the post titled “Tropical Storm Priscilla Wrap-up”
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** FLOOD WARNING is out until further notice for the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs. As of 2pm Sunday, the river was at 9.1ft. “Bankfull stage” is at 8.5ft. The river is forecast to rise above flood stage late Monday evening and to crest around 10.9ft early Tuesday morning. ***
*** FLOOD WATCH from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. This includes all rivers, creaks, and low-lying areas in the region. ***
*** More rain Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The heaviest rain will fall sunrise Monday to sunrise Tuesday. Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms Tuesday morning through Wednesday. ***
*** Hard freeze Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. ***
Forecast details…
Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning… We’ll be between systems with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a few spotty showers, mostly over the mountains. Shower activity will gradually increase during the early morning hours.
Monday around sunrise to Tuesday around sunrise… We’ll catch some of the remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond. Precipitable water, the amount of water vapor available for precip, will be 250% to 300% average. Expect periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and a few spotty lightning strikes. *** This is the period that we will get the most rain. ***
Tuesday morning to Thursday morning… A slow-moving low-pressure system will wobble to our west and push rounds of storm energy and moisture through our area. Upslope winds out of the southwest, precipitable water 150% to 200%, and moderate to high instability will fuel hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. Storms will be fast-moving and cause brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Thursday afternoon through next weekend… Ridging will build over the region and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and temps 5-10 degrees below average.
Temps…
Sunday night lows will be the low 30s to low 40s.
Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.
Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s. ***
Winds…
Sunday and Monday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons gusts will be around 25mph.
Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.
As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
*** 1.50” to 2” is expected between roughly sunrise Monday to sunrise Tuesday. ***
The 8-14 day period… The models show a weak system around 20-22 Oct but are otherwise mostly dry.
The next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
3 Responses
Usually the San Juan reaches it’s highest flood stage fueled by Spring and Summer snowmelt from the 12 -14,000 foot peaks in Mineral County East of the Village. This year has been unique, in that we have had tons of rain in the Autumn.
I have lived here for 30 years. I have seen our mineral baths flood, but never this late in the season.
Brian, It is unusual but the record three highest crests on the San Juan River have been due most likely to remnants from tropical storms.
Historic Crests of San Juan River in Pagosa Springs
1. 17.80 ft on 10-05-1911 Tropical Storm
2. 13.50 ft on 06-29-1927 Early Tropical Storm?
3. 12.66 ft *** on 10-11-2025 *** Tropical Storm Priscilla
4. 10.22 ft on 06-09-2019 Spring runoff
5. 9.55 ft on 05-17-2023 Spring runoff
6. 9.02 ft on 09-06-1970 Tropical Storm
There is a new #3!!! Note: Three of the five highest crest years were in the last six years.
I think Raymond is trying to out do Priscilla ! Also, the national weather service states ” light rain” in Pagosa. That would have made Katrina a shower, right……