Perfect flying weather for Color Fest! – pic taken 9/21/2025 by Arleen
Monday – 22 Sep 2025 – 2:45pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Saturday: High: 70, Low: 42, Minimum relative humidity: 37%, Peak Wind: 21mph
Sunday: High: 74, Low: 38, Minimum relative humidity: 22%, Peak Wind: 26mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 71 | 85 / 1945 | 34 | 23 / 1983 |
Precipitation summary… On Saturday Hidden Valley, San Juan River Village, and upper Blanco reported 0.02” to 0.03”. Nobody else had measurable precip on Saturday or Sunday.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Rest of Monday occasional light rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm into the evening. ***
*** Tuesday there’s a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. ***
*** Wednesday and Thursday we’ll have lots of blue sky, scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, chilly mornings and pleasant afternoons. ***
*** Friday there’s a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. ***
*** Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday there will be more clouds and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. ***
Rest of Monday… A trough approaching the region from the northwest is interacting with a weak monsoon moisture plume. We’ll have mostly cloudy skies, occasional light rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two. Precip amounts will be light.
Tuesday… The trough will move through northeast CO. We could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Most of us will be dry.
Wednesday and Thursday… A ridge will push dry, northwest winds air across our region. We’ll have lots of blue sky, scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, chilly mornings, and pleasant afternoons.
Friday… The ridge will slowly move overhead and then to our east. It will be a little less stable, but the atmosphere will be dry. There’s a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.
Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday… A cut-off low will slowly track through AZ and NM. There will be more moisture and instability, so we’ll see scattered afternoon and evening storms. Precip amounts will be low.
*** Forecast models struggle with cut-off lows, especially during transition season. A “wobble” of just a hundred miles in any direction significantly impacts the forecast. At this time, my forecast confidence in the details is low. ***
Temps…
Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Thursday and Friday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Cold spots will flirt with freezing temperatures.
Saturday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Sunday and next Monday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.
What is a “cold spot”? Cold spots are in low-lying areas where the coldest air sinks to. These areas can be 5 degrees colder than the slightly higher spots nearby. If your low temp is often just below my forecast low temperature range, then you live in a cold spot. *** To be safe, consider covering your sensitive plants. ***
Winds… Gusts each afternoon will mostly be around 20mph. Tuesday afternoon, the windy spots could see a few gusts to 25mph out of the southwest. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The 8-14 day period… The models continue to flip-flop wildly for the 8-14 day period. We’re in the battleground between low pressure systems skirting to our north and the subtropical ridge trying to hang on to our south. It’s a typical transition season weather pattern. Stay tuned!
Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Wednesday.
– Shawn
