Love seeing these guys every morning! – Pic taken 8/24/2025
Tuesday – 2 Sep 2025 – 4:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Sunday: High: 80, Low: 47, Minimum relative humidity: 16%, Peak Wind: 21mph
Monday: High: 80, Low: 51, Minimum relative humidity: 21%, Peak Wind: 20mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 79 | 90 / 1950 | 40 | 30 / 1944 |
Precipitation summary… On Sunday, a few lucky spots got 0.01” and 0.02” of rain, but most of us didn’t get anything. We did better yesterday. Those reports are below.
Fire and smoke…
Things have been quiet in Archuleta County, but multiple new fires have popped up in Rio Arriba County to our south in NM. All recent fires in our region have been quickly maintained.
Forecast discussion…
If it tracks farther west, we could see more moisture, but with this track, I think the moisture will stay to our south.
Forecast highlights…
*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***
*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***
*** Weak monsoon activity through Thursday and then increased monsoon activity Friday and Saturday. ***
*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***
Rest of Tuesday through next Tuesday…
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening will be active with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday moisture will be marginal, but instability will be high. There will be a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be low and spotty.
Friday and Saturday a surge of monsoon moisture will lead to more showers and thunderstorms. I expect most of the county to get 0.25” to 0.50”. I won’t be surprised if the rain lottery winners get closer to an inch.
Sunday is a transition day as moisture and instability decrease. There will be less storm activity.
Monday and through the rest of next week, feeble monsoon activity will return. There’s just a slight chance for a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.
Temps…
Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s. Friday and Saturday night lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Sunday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.
Monday and next Tuesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The 8-14 day period… Monsoon activity will remain marginal. There will still be a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms most days, but we’ll be playing the rain lottery.
I think the models continue to overforecast precip. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Thursday.
– Shawn
