We need rain dances…

Lots of flowers in the high country! – Pic taken 7/6/2025

Tuesday – 8 Jul 2025 – 2:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Sunday was 87, and on Monday it was 85. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots were near 40.

The minimum relative humidity Sunday afternoon was 7% and Monday afternoon it was 14%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 29mph and on Monday it was 31mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
84	96 / 1989	44	30 / 1955

Precipitation summary… There were a few spotty showers and thunderstorms yesterday, but precip amounts were mostly light.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports range from zero to 0.26”.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 1:20pm to 2:20pm Tuesday – Clouds are moving from the north to the south over southwest Colorado. This means that the upper-level ridge has slipped to our west and monsoon moisture is getting cut off. The dry, stable air currently over UT and NV will move our way over the next few days.

*Radar at 2:32pm Tuesday – There are a couple of weak showers moving towards the southeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of the San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry through the week. ***

*** Weak monsoon activity will ramp up next week. ***

*** FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Friday… Dry, mostly stable air will stick with us. There’s a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Be happy if you get a few raindrops!

Saturday and Sunday…The atmosphere will be a little less stable. There still won’t be much moisture. We might see a few more spotty showers or thunderstorms, but it doesn’t look too promising.

Monday and Tuesday… The trend for a little more moisture and little more instability will continue so there will be a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph through Wednesday. Thursday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Sunday through next Tuesday, afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to Sunday evening shows the Pagosa area mostly dry and up to 0.10” in our mountains. A mountain shower could move over a lucky neighborhood and drop a few raindrops, but I think most of us will stay dry.

NBM precip to late next Tuesday evening shows a little more precip in the Pagosa and in our mountains. It’s going to hit and miss. — *NBM precip to late next Tuesday evening shows a little more precip in the Pagosa area and in our mountains. It’s going to be hit and miss.*

The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will ramp up. We’ll see more showers and thunderstorms most afternoons, but I don’t see any big soakings on the horizon.

*On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 23 Jul at 6am shows 0.52” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.40”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS!*

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for above average precip for us. Monsoon activity will ramp up next week, but I expect near average precip for this period.*

The next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

Tom Byres says:

July 8, 2025 at 3:48 pm

We would like to donate to your weather blog – we really enjoy it —
Tom and Floy Byres (we are your neighbors, in Craig Vogts house)
Tom and Floy

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  July 8, 2025 at 4:01 pm
  
  Hello Tom & Flo! Thank you for the positive feedback! We hope we help plan your walks. Follow this link for ways to donate…
  https://pagosaweather.org/support-pagosa-weather/
  
  Or if you prefer, we can stop by and pick up a check. What ever is easier for you!
  
  Thank you for your thoughtfulness!
  
  Arleen & Shawn
  
  Reply

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