Mostly dry and warm through the week…

There are tons of pretty flowers in the high country! – Pic taken 6/29/2025

Sunday – 6 Jul 2025 – 6:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 80, and on Saturday it was 85. The low this morning was 43. The cold spots were in the mid-30s.

The minimum relative humidity Friday afternoon was 20% and Saturday afternoon it was 8%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 28mph and on Saturday it was 23mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
84	98 / 1989	42	28 / 1941

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 4:20pm to 5:20pm Sunday – A little moisture and instability have moved into the Four Corners region. Our best chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm is Monday and then we’ll dry out again.

*Radar at 5:28pm Sunday – That’s mostly virga over our mountains. Weak showers are moving towards the northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of the San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry through the week. ***

*** Weak monsoon activity will start again next week. ***

*** FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

Rest of Sunday through next Sunday… Dry, mostly stable air will stick with us. There’s a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Monday is the best chance to see a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but most of the Pagosa area will stay dry.

Next weekend, the atmosphere will be a little less stable. We might see a few more spotty showers or thunderstorms, but it doesn’t look too promising.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph through Wednesday. Thursday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Next Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

WPC precip to next Sunday evening shows a little spotty precip near Pagosa and up to 0.10” in our mountains. A mountain shower could move over a lucky neighborhood and drop a few raindrops, but I think most of us will stay dry.

The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will start back up, so we’ll see isolated showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. I don’t see any big soakings on the horizon.

*On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 21 Jul at 6am shows 0.42” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.07”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS!*

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows “near normal” precip for us. I think monsoon activity will ramp up next week, but I expect below average precip for this period.*

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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