It is Going to be Dry for at least 10 Days

mountain

Pagosa Peak back dropped by a nice Cumulonimbus cloud – pic 6/11/25 (click on title of post to see picture)

Thursday – 12 Jun 2025 – 8:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 79, and today it was 83. The low this morning was 43.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 25mph in the afternoon. Then a collapsing thunderstorm last night woke most of us up around 1130pm and the airfield hit 37mph! This afternoon we hit 30mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7898 / 19463519/ 1951

Precipitation summary… The last few days our flow has been out of the northwest – a drying lee side flow for us. It backed a little today to the southwest but our afternoon dewpoints were in the upper 30s with relative humidities of 25%. Most rain falls and evaporates before it hits the ground with air that dry.

Cocorahs 12 jun 25
CoCoRaHS 3-day precip reports range from zero to 0.16”. Dara in Loma Linda saw .16″ over 3 days.

Satellite

Sat 12 Jun 25
An upper level trough finished moving through our area today. It really blew up to the east of in an area we call the “dry line”. The combination of hot low level temps, moisture advecting in the mid-levels & cool air in the upper levels with the trough combine to destabilize things and thunderstorms take off. Dry air associated with a ridge to the west moves in now…

Radar

Radar 12 Jun 25

Radar at 7:00pm Thursday – We had Scattered showers & Thunderstorms move through from the east to the west today. The best showers were to the east where the showers had a little orthographic boost. There was only one shower to the east left in the county with some pretty cumulus clouds throughout other areas.

Forecast highlights…

*** Warm & Dry weather for a while – typical for June. ***

*** Fire Dangers increase ***

Friday, the 13th through Sunday the 22nd: Drier, more stable air moves in… It will be Clear to Partly Cloudy with lots of sun, warm temperatures and dry weather.

Temps… Highs temps will be in the low 80s to upper 80s with Sunday being the warmest day of the week. Temperatures next Tuesday through Sunday will be in uppers 70s to the low 80s. Low temperatures for the entire period will low 40s to mid 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts each afternoon will be around 20mph. Monday and Tuesday afternoon gusts will be a little bit higher; up to 25mph.

Wildfire Danger Increases

Remember with these conditions, fuels will dry out quickly. Please be extra careful and vigilant in the back country to not inadvertently start a wildfire. Thank you!

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Arleen

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Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!

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