Afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday and then dry and warm for a while…

A beautiful field of wild irises at sunset – pic taken 6/9/2025

A beautiful field of wild irises at sunset – pic taken 6/9/2025

Tuesday – 10 Jun 2025 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Sunday was 78, and on Monday it was 76. The low this morning was 44. The cold spots were dipped into the mid-30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 26mph and on Monday it was 33mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7695 / 19483522 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Precip has been very spotty the last two days.

CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports range from zero to 0.21”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports range from zero to 0.21”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 3-4pm Tuesday – There was quite a bit of lightning over eastern Archuleta County and towards Chama.
Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 3-4pm Tuesday – There was quite a bit of lightning over eastern Archuleta County and towards Chama.
Radar at 4:14pm Tuesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through eastern Archuleta County while the rest of the county has hardly seen anything. Showers are moving slowly towards the south.
Radar at 4:14pm Tuesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through eastern Archuleta County while the rest of the county has hardly seen anything. Showers are moving slowly towards the south.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. ***

*** And then warm and dry weather for a while, more typical for June. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Wednesday…. Tuesday and Wednesday there will be a slight increase in moisture and instability leading to a better chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Up to 0.10” of rain is possible each day.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS NDFD precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.11” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NWS NDFD precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.11” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Thursday through next Tuesday… Drier, more stable air will move in. It will be warm with lots of sun, and dry weather.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Friday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s. For the rest of this period highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds… Thursday through Sunday, afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Monday and Tuesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Euro ensemble high and low temps through 24 Jun shows highs mostly in the low to mid-80s.
Euro ensemble high and low temps through 24 Jun shows highs mostly in the low to mid-80s.

The 8-14 day period… More typical for this time of year, fairly stable and drier southwest flow will set up. There’s still a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

The Euro ensemble precip to 25 Jun at 6am on the top shows 0.17” for Pagosa and the GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.72”. That’s a big difference. Unfortunately I agree with the Euro.
The Euro ensemble precip to 25 Jun at 6am on the top shows 0.17” for Pagosa and the GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.72”. That’s a big difference. Unfortunately I agree with the Euro.

The next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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