Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday…

Wild iris with wild Arleen zipping by – pic taken 6/7/2025

Wild iris with wild Arleen zipping by – pic taken 6/7/2025

Sunday – 8 Jun 2025 – 2:00pm

I was about to hit “send” at 1:50pm and a nearby lightning strike briefly knocked out our power!

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 72, and on Saturday it was 77. The low this morning was 40. The cold spots were near freezing.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 44mph and on Saturday it was 28mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7592 / 19463417 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip reported.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from 12:21pm to 1:16pm Sunday afternoon – The band of moisture is slowly pushing south. It’s a little more unstable in our area and weak showers are popping up.
Water vapor satellite loop from 12:21pm to 1:16pm Sunday afternoon – The band of moisture is slowly pushing south. It’s a little more unstable in our area and weak showers are popping up.
Radar at 1:34pm Sunday afternoon – A few weak showers have developed as I type. They are moving towards the southeast and east.
Radar at 1:34pm Sunday afternoon – A few weak showers have developed as I type. They are moving towards the southeast and east.

Forecast highlights…

*** A chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon. ***

*** A better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. ***

*** And then warm and dry weather for a while, more typical for June. ***

Rest of Sunday through Wednesday…. Sunday there isn’t much moisture but we’re still unstable. Expect just a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms mostly over the mountains.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday there will be a slight increase in moisture and instability leading to a better chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday up to 0.10” is possible each day.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.19” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.19” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Thursday through next weekend… Drier, more stable air will move in. It will be warm with lots of sun, and dry weather.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Friday, Saturday and Sunday highs will be near 80 to near 90 and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

The 8-14 day period… More typical for this time of year, fairly stable and drier southwest flow will set up. There’s still a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

The Euro ensemble precip to 23 Jun at 6am on the top shows 0.25” for Pagosa and the GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.89”. That’s a big difference. Unfortunately I agree with the Euro.
The Euro ensemble precip to 23 Jun at 6am on the top shows 0.25” for Pagosa and the GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.89”. That’s a big difference. Unfortunately I agree with the Euro.

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

  1. As of 3:15 today (Sunday) it has been pouring on Aspenglow! This feels like the monsoon already!

    1. Wonderful!!! Thank you for the report! We have only had .02″. I know it feels like the monsoon to me to. But this moisture is associated with systems from the north and the not the southerly sub tropical ridge. It looks like it will set up by the end of June. The true monsoon showers should visit us the last week of June.

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