Stormy skies over Pagosa Peak – pic taken 4/18/2025
Friday – 18 Apr 2025 – 2:45pm
*** Earth Day events that were scheduled for tomorrow have been RESCHEDULED for next Saturday, 26 April. ***
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 66 and on Thursday it was 59. The low this morning was 34.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 33mph and on Thursday it was 44mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 61 | 75 / 1987 | 26 | 14 / 1970 |
Precipitation summary… There were a few snowflakes and graupel this morning, but most people reported a trace or no precip. Wolf Creek Pass had an inch or two of new snow this morning.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Scattered snow showers into Saturday afternoon. ***
*** Roads in the Pagosa area could be slick Friday night into Saturday morning. ***
*** Expect poor travel conditions on Wolf Creek Pass into Saturday evening. ***
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains – this includes Wolf Creek and Cumbres Passes. 10-16” of snow and winds gusting to 40mph are expected by 6pm Saturday. ***
*** Lots of sun and warmer next week. ***
Friday and Saturday… The cold, low-pressure system currently over western UT will move over north-central AZ tonight and then east through NM along I-40 tomorrow. This is a good track for us.
Timing…
Satellite indicates bands of stronger showers moving our way later this afternoon and into the evening. Then most of the night there to be a lull with a few hit and miss showers, mostly over the mountains. Saturday around sunrise through Saturday afternoon, shower activity will increase with our best chance for snow. Showers will end in the Pagosa area by sunset Saturday but will persist into Saturday evening over the mountains.
Snow levels…
– Friday afternoon: around 7,400ft
– Most of Friday night: around 6,500ft
– Saturday afternoon: around 7,400ft
*** A few isolated lightning strikes are possible each afternoon. Rain, snow, graupel, and small hail are all possible. ***
*** Temps will be above freezing each afternoon, and the ground is warm, so snow will struggle to accumulate during the day. ***
Snow amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 8-14”
Pagosa area above 7,600ft: 2-4”
Pagosa area below 7,600ft: 1-2”
Temps… Friday and Saturday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s. Friday night lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. *** Saturday night/Sunday morning lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. ***
Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Saturday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Sunday through Friday… A transient ridge will move through and keep us dry and give us partly cloudy skies.
Temps…
Sunday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and low will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Tuesday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs will be in the low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.
The 8-14 day period… The models are wavering between a dry pattern and an active pattern with a couple of chances for light precip. It could go either way.
Unless there’s a big change to my forecast, the next post will be Sunday afternoon. Keep an eye on Facebook for quick updates.
– Shawn
