Lots of sun and warmer…

Graham Peak with a thick coat of new spring snow – pic taken 4/6/2025

Graham Peak with a thick coat of new spring snow – pic taken 4/6/2025

Sunday – 6 Apr 2025 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 45 and on Saturday it was 36. The low this morning was 27.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 20mph and on Saturday it was 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5672 / 1991224 / 1909

Precipitation summary… Below are all kinds of fun graphics. Please read the captions for details.

Wolf Creek reported another 4” in the last 24 hours, bringing their multiday total to 26”.

Wolf Creek ended up with 228” – their 5th worst season since 1976/1977. The good news is that the following year after the other four bad years, was much better…

Winter                        >          Following Winter                   2 Winters later

1976/1977: 187                       1977/1978: 357                       1978/1979: 570

2014/2015: 204                       2015/2016: 388                       2016/2017: 389

2001/2002: 208                       2002/2003: 307                       2003/2004: 379

2017/2018: 211                       2018/2019: 490                       2019/2020: 343

2024/2025: 228                       2025/2026: more?!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow totals ranged from a dusting to 4.7”. I was surprised that a few folks got over 2”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow totals ranged from a dusting to 4.7”. I was surprised that a few folks got over 2”.
CoCoRaHS multiday snow totals – most of the Pagosa area got 4-7” of snow. Arleen had the most with 10.1”. Snow that fell each day mostly melted each afternoon. The most we had on the ground at any point was 3”.
CoCoRaHS multiday snow totals – most of the Pagosa area got 4-7” of snow. Arleen had the most with 10.1”. Snow that fell each day mostly melted each afternoon. The most we had on the ground at any point was 3”.
CoCoRaHS multiday liquid equivalent totals – Precip totals across Archuleta County ranged from 0.36” to 0.81”.
CoCoRaHS multiday liquid equivalent totals – Precip totals across Archuleta County ranged from 0.36” to 0.81”.
Snowpack is decent for northern CO and in rough shape for southern CO.
Snowpack is decent for northern CO and in rough shape for southern CO.
This is the snowpack table for the San Juan Mountain basins – The Upper San Juan snotel is at 42% for this point in the season and 39% of the entire season. The Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 62% for this point in the season and 53% of the entire season.
This is the snowpack table for the San Juan Mountain basins – The Upper San Juan snotel is at 42% for this point in the season and 39% of the entire season. The Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 62% for this point in the season and 53% of the entire season.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Dry northerly flow has taken over. The ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us dry for the next week and maybe longer.
Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Dry northerly flow has taken over. The ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us dry for the next week and maybe longer.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun! Temps 10-15 degrees above average the second half of the week. ***

*** Not much precip for the next 15 days. ***

Rest of Sunday through Saturday… We will dry out and warm up. By the middle of the week, highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s with lots of bright blue sunny skies.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Tuesday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Monday, Thursday, and Friday afternoons winds will gust 15-20mph. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Saturday afternoons winds will gust 20-25mph.

The 8-14 day period… The storm track will try to stay to our north. If we’re lucky, a system will dip a little farther south, but I don’t see much precip on the horizon.

Euro ensemble precip to 6am on 21 Apr shows 0.25” for Pagosa. The inset shows the 15-day trend with day 1 on the left and day 15 on the right. It looks dry through 15 April and then a little precip is possible.
Euro ensemble precip to 6am on 21 Apr shows 0.25” for Pagosa. The inset shows the 15-day trend with day 1 on the left and day 15 on the right. It looks dry through 15 April and then a little precip is possible.

The next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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