Scattered snowshowers and gusty winds on Tuesday…

A pretty moonset on a chilly March morning – pic taken 3/15/2025

A pretty moonset on a chilly March morning – pic taken 3/15/2025

Sunday – 16 Mar 2025 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 32 and on Saturday it was 32. The low this morning was 10. The cold spots dipped into the low single digits.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 33mph and on Saturday it was 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5065 / 196715-13 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Scattered snowshowers hit some parts of Archuleta County Saturday afternoon. A few spots reported 0.3” and 0.4” of snow.

Wolf Creek reported 3” of new snow this morning. That’s brings their 3-day total to 30”.

CoCoRaHS snowfall totals so far in March range from 7” to 15.7”. The average for March is 15.1”.
CoCoRaHS snowfall totals so far in March range from 7” to 15.7”. The average for March is 15.1”.
Current Colorado snowpack – The southwest San Juan Mountain basins snowpack is at 72%. The Upper San Juan snotel is at 47% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 71%.
Current Colorado snowpack – The southwest San Juan Mountain basins snowpack is at 72%. The Upper San Juan snotel is at 47% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 71%.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, will move through our area tonight and clouds will increase. The trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast will move through our area Tuesday afternoon.
Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, will move through our area tonight and clouds will increase. The trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast will move through our area Tuesday afternoon.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered snowshowers and gusty winds on Tuesday. ***

*** I don’t see any big storms for the rest of the month. ***

Sunday evening through Monday afternoon… Sunday night clouds will increase as the ridge to moves to the east.

Monday we’ll see mostly cloudy skies, slightly stronger winds, and warmer temps ahead of the next system.

Temps… Sunday night lows will be mid-teens to mid-20s. Monday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts near Pagosa will be 20-25mph and the mountains could see gusts to 40mph.

Monday night into Tuesday night… The next storm will move through. It has decent storm energy and moisture, but it’s a fast-mover.

Scattered snowshowers will develop over the mountains late Monday evening. The best chance for precip is sunrise to sunset Tuesday. Spotty snowshowers will persist into Tuesday night, mostly over the mountains, but additional snow accumulations will be minimal.

Snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: 4-7”

Pagosa area: a dusting to 2”

Temps… Monday night lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.

Winds… *** Tuesday afternoon gusts in the Pagosa area will be 30-40mph and in the mountains gusts to 55mph are possible. ***

The “official” NWS snow forecast shows around 1” near Pagosa and 4-7” near Wolf Creek.
The “official” NWS snow forecast shows around 1” near Pagosa and 4-7” near Wolf Creek.

Wednesday morning through Saturday morning … For much of this period a ridge will be in control, and we’ll stay dry.

Thursday night a fast-moving trough will move through northern Colorado. We’ll get a few scraps. Scattered snowshowers could drop up to 1” of snow in the lucky spots in the mountains.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the high 30s to the high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens. Thursday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Friday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph.

The 8-14 day period… We’re back in the “scraps” pattern as storms miss us to the north.

Euro ensemble 15-day precip shows 0.38” near Pagosa. The inset shows 15-day snow total for Wolf Creek around 6.5”.
Euro ensemble 15-day precip shows 0.38” near Pagosa. The inset shows 15-day snow total for Wolf Creek around 6.5”.

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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