Periods of heavy snow up at Wolf Creek all morning – Wolf Creek Ski Area web cam at 10:53am Thursday
Thursday – 6 Mar 2025 – 1:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 48. The low this morning was 32.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 18mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 45 | 66 / 1986 | 11 | -12 / 1944 |
Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported 3” of new snow this morning. In the Pagosa area, we were the only ones to have measurable snow, ¾”, just north of Turkey Springs at 8,000ft elevation.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued WINTER WEATHER WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains. 10-20” of snow and winds gusting to 60mph are expected until 11pm Friday. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
*** Expect periods of blizzard-like conditions late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. ***
*** Next storm 11-14 March. ***
Rest of Thursday into Saturday morning… We will be impacted by a double-barrel low pressure system. The first barrel will move through Thursday evening and the second will slip to our south Friday night.
Timing… Occasional bands of heavy snow, and maybe thunder and lightning, are possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A spotty snowshower or two with minor accumulations are possible Thursday evening through Friday morning. Snowshowers will ramp up a bit late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning and then become more spotty before sunrise Saturday.
*** At noon on Thursday, the snow level is around 7,500ft. It will drop rapidly below 7,000ft 4-6pm as the cold front moves west to east across the county. ***
Snow amounts Thursday morning to Friday morning…
Wolf Creek area: 10-15”
Pagosa area: 1-3”
Snow amounts Friday morning to sunrise Saturday…
Wolf Creek area: 2-4”
Pagosa area: up to 1” but it will be spotty. Areas south of highway 160 will be favored.
Cromo and Chama areas: 1-3”
*** If the low tracks a little farther north Friday night, snow totals will be an inch or two higher. ***
Temps… Thursday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Highs Friday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.
Winds… *** Thursday afternoon gusts near Pagosa will be 30-40mph and in the mountains gusts will be 50-60mph. *** Friday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Saturday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon… A ridge will give us lots of sun and a warming trend.
Clouds will increase Monday night and Tuesday ahead the next low-pressure system.
Temps… Saturday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday and Monday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts Saturday and Sunday will be 10-15mph. Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Tuesday evening through Friday morning… Two systems will move through. The first one, Tuesday night and Wednesday, looks weak. The second one, Thursday through Friday morning, is a bit stronger.
My forecast confidence is still low for precip amounts and timing, but here’s my rough first guess…
Snow amounts Tuesday night through Wednesday morning…
Wolf Creek area: 2-5”
Pagosa area: up to 1”
Snow amounts Thursday through Friday morning…
Wolf Creek area: 8-12”
Pagosa area: 1-3”
*** I’ll adjust timing and snow amounts as the data gets better. ***
The next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
