Sunny, warm, and dry through the rest of February…

Happy pup on the Piedra River Trail yesterday! – pic taken by Arleen on 2/20/2025

Happy pup on the Piedra River Trail yesterday! – pic taken by Arleen on 2/20/2025

Friday – 21 Feb 2025 – 2:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 41 and on Thursday it was 43.  The low this morning was 12.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 10mph and on Thursday afternoon it was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4364 / 19589-22 / 1955

Precipitation summary… A couple of spotty snowflakes fell Thursday afternoon.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite late Friday afternoon – Clouds are developing over the mountains due to unstable flow around the low over western KS. The big ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us dry and warm for the next 7-10 days.
Water vapor satellite late Friday afternoon – Clouds are developing over the mountains due to unstable flow around the low over western KS. The big ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us dry and warm for the next 7-10 days.

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday around 2pm.

Forecast highlights…

*** A few spotty mountain snowflakes are possible Friday afternoon. ***

*** Lots of sun, dry, and warm through the rest of February. ***

Friday afternoon… We have unstable, cyclonic flow around a weak low moving through western KS. A few spotty snowflakes are possible, mostly over the mountains. I don’t expect any accumulation.

Temps… Friday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.

Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.

Friday night through next Friday… Ridging will build over the desert southwest. We’ll see lots of sun and a warming trend.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.

Saturday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Sunday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons windy spots could get gusts to 20mph.

The rest of the 14-day period… The long-range forecast models continue to show the pattern getting more active the first week of March.

Euro ensemble precip to 5am on 8 March shows 0.66” in the Pagosa area. The inset shows total snow possible for Wolf Creek.  It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. There’s isn’t much going on until 2/3 Mar.  By 8 Mar, 9.4” of snow is possible for Wolf Creek.
Euro ensemble precip to 5am on 8 March shows 0.66” in the Pagosa area. The inset shows total snow possible for Wolf Creek.  It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. There’s isn’t much going on until 2/3 Mar.  By 8 Mar, 9.4” of snow is possible for Wolf Creek.

The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook gives us a 33-40% for above average precip.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook gives us a 33-40% for above average precip.

The next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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