Spotty snowflakes tonight and again Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon…

Happy pup in the snow! – pic taken 2/16/2025

Happy pup in the snow! – pic taken 2/16/2025

Monday – 17 Feb 2025 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Saturday was 34 and on Sunday it was 39.  The low this morning was 14. The cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 20mph and on Sunday afternoon it was 7mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4267 / 19438-30 / 1910

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – Upper-level flow over our area is out of the west-northwest and dry. The trough moving through northern UT will move through our area Tuesday morning and kick up a few spotty snowshowers.
Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – Upper-level flow over our area is out of the west-northwest and dry. The trough moving through northern UT will move through our area Tuesday morning and kick up a few spotty snowshowers.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Monday night into Tuesday morning a few spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains. ***

*** Another weak storm will move through Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon. ***

*** Lots of sun, dry, and warm next week. ***

Monday night into Tuesday afternoon… We’ll get a few “scraps” as a trough moves through northern Colorado.  It’s a wimpy storm with low snow amounts.

Snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: 1-3”

Pagosa area: a dusting in the lucky spots

Temps… Lows Monday night will be low teens to low 20s. Tuesday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.

Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

The “official” NWS snow forecast shows a dusting in the Pagosa area and 1-3” near Wolf Creek. The higher peaks of the south San Juans could do better.
The “official” NWS snow forecast shows a dusting in the Pagosa area and 1-3” near Wolf Creek. The higher peaks of the south San Juans could do better.

Tuesday night through Thursday morning… A transient ridge will push patches of mid and high clouds through the area, but it will be dry.

Temps… Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Wednesday highs will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s and lows will be near 10 to near 20.

Winds… Gusts Wednesday afternoon will be 15-20mph.

Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon… We’ll get a few “scraps” as another system moves through northern Colorado. There will be a few spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains.  Snow accumulations will be minimal.

Snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: up to 2”

Pagosa area: up to a half inch in the lucky spots

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the mid to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Friday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

WPC precip for this period shows 0.02” near Pagosa and 0.20” near Wolf Creek. This would result in a dusting of snow near Pagosa and up to 2” near Wolf Creek.
WPC precip for this period shows 0.02” near Pagosa and 0.20” near Wolf Creek. This would result in a dusting of snow near Pagosa and up to 2” near Wolf Creek.

Friday night through Sunday… Ridging will build over the desert southwest. We’ll see lots of sun and a warming trend.

Temps… Friday night lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens. Saturday highs will be in the mid-40 to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Sunday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

8-14 day period… We will be dry and warm most of next week and then the weather pattern could get more active the first week of March.

Euro ensemble precip to 5am on 4 March shows 0.52” in the Pagosa area. Upper-level flow will be out of the northwest for much of this period – like it’s been most of the winter.
Euro ensemble precip to 5am on 4 March shows 0.52” in the Pagosa area. Upper-level flow will be out of the northwest for much of this period – like it’s been most of the winter.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – These charts are read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom charts graphs the control and mean. 1 is the weak system moving through in the next 24 hours. 2 is another weak system moving through on Friday. Then it’s dry most of next week.  Finally, the pattern could get more active as we move into March.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – These charts are read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom charts graphs the control and mean.
1 is the weak system moving through in the next 24 hours.
2 is another weak system moving through on Friday.
Then it’s dry most of next week. 
Finally, the pattern could get more active as we move into March.

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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