It’s amazing how different this view from Wolf Creek will look 12 hours later! – pic taken 2/13/2025 around noon
Thursday – 13 Feb 2025 – 3:45pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 28. The low this morning was 1. The cold spots dipped into the negative mid-single digits.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 36mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 42 | 58 / 1957 | 7 | -29 / 1940 |
Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** There is a WINTER STORM WARNING for the Pagosa area for up to 12” of snow from 6pm Thursday to noon on Friday. ***
*** There is a WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains. Up to 3 feet of snow and winds gusting to 45mph are likely from 6pm Thursday to 6pm Saturday. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
*** There is an AVALANCHE WATCH for the San Juan Mountains from 11pm Thursday to 5pm Saturday. ***
Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon… The main storm system will move through. Jetstream, flow direction, moisture, and storm energy are lining up for a decent storm.
Timing… Snowshowers will gradually increase over the mountains early Thursday evening and over the valley late Thursday evening. The heaviest snow will fall late Thursday evening to around noon Friday. Friday afternoon through Saturday morning snowshowers will be more hit and miss in the valley but will persist in the mountains. A final band of scattered snowshowers is possible Saturday afternoon but additional accumulation will be minimal.
The snow level could pop up to 7,000ft Friday afternoon.
*** Most of the snow will fall late Thursday evening into early Friday afternoon and then hit and miss showers will persist into Saturday afternoon. Expect periods of heavy snow, blowing snow, gusty winds, poor visibility, and bad travel conditions across the region. ***
Snow amounts…
Pagosa area: 8-14”
Chromo and Chama areas: 12-18”
Wolf Creek area: 20-30”
Temps… Highs will be in the mid to high 30s. Thursday night lows will be around 20 to the high 20s. Friday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Saturday night lows will be near zero to the low teens.
Winds… Thursday and Saturday afternoons gusts will be 15-20mph. Friday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.
Sunday through Monday evening… Dry with temps near average.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 10-20.
Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph. Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Monday night into Tuesday evening… The next low-pressure system will move through. It looks like a wimpy storm with low snow amounts.
Snow amounts…
Mountains: 1-3”
Pagosa area: up to a half inch
Temps… Lows Monday night will be 10-20. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Tuesday night will be 10-20.
Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.
The forecast models vary from almost nothing to almost 6” for Pagosa. Things aren’t lining up so I expect low snow totals from this storm.
I’ll do a post every day through Saturday.
– Shawn
