Big bright moon about to set this morning. That field will have a foot of snow on it by Saturday morning! – pic taken 2/12/2025
Wednesday – 12 Feb 2025 – 11:45am
Side note… The “real” snow will conveniently hold off until after our presentation. Thank you Mother Nature!
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 39. The low this morning was 16. The cold spots dipped into the low single digits.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Tuesday afternoon was 33mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 42 | 59 / 1957 | 7 | -13 / 1966 |
Precipitation summary… There were a few spotty snowflakes in the Pagosa area yesterday. Wolf Creek reported 2” of new snow this morning.
Forecast discussion…
The Valentine’s Day storm is beginning to develop on the west edge of this image.
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Thursday night into Saturday morning SNOWBLOWER ALERT and POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ***
*** Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the southwest San Juan Mountains. Up to 3 feet of snow and winds gusting to 45mph are possible Thursday evening through late Friday night. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
Rest of Wednesday through Thursday morning… Expect lots of sun, a few patchy clouds, gusty winds, and chilly conditions as a transient ridge moves through.
Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the high 20s to low 30s and lows will be in the mid negative single digits to around 10.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph in the Pagosa area and 40-50mph in the mountains.
Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon… The main storm system will move through. Jetstream, flow direction, moisture, and storm energy are lining up for a decent storm.
Timing… Snowshowers will gradually increase over the mountains late Thursday afternoon and over the valley late Thursday evening. The heaviest snow will fall late Thursday evening into late Friday afternoon. Friday evening snowshowers will gradually decrease in the valley. A final band of scattered snowshowers is possible Saturday afternoon but additional accumulation will be minimal.
The snow level could pop up to 7,000ft Friday afternoon.
*** Most of the snow will fall between late Thursday evening and late Friday afternoon. Expect periods of heavy snow, blowing snow, gusty winds, poor visibility, and bad travel conditions across the region. ***
Snow amounts…
Pagosa area: 8-14”
Wolf Creek area: 20-30”
Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 30s. Thursday night lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Friday night lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Saturday night lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.
Winds… Thursday and Saturday afternoons gusts will be 15-20mph. Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph.
For Pagosa, I think it’s a little high due to temps above freezing Friday afternoon.
Sunday through Monday evening… Dry with temps near average.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 10-20.
Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.
Monday night into Wednesday morning… The next low-pressure system will move through. It looks like a wimpy storm with low snow amounts.
Snow amounts…
Mountains: 1-3”
Pagosa area: up to a half inch in the lucky spots
Temps… Lows Monday night will be 10-20. Highs Tuesday will be in the high 30s to low 40s and lows Tuesday night will be 10-20.
Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.
I’ll do a post every day through Saturday.
– Shawn
One Response
Thanks for the update Shawn (and Arleen)! We are doing our best to get our snow dance on…
As always, we appreciate what you are doing