Pagosa Peak at sunset. I expect 2 feet of new snow in the mountains by Saturday morning! – pic taken 10 Feb 2024
Tuesday – 11 Feb 2025 – 1:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 45. The low this morning was 21.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 40mph at 2:55pm when a band of snowshowers moved through.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 42 | 59 / 1970 | 6 | -21 / 1949 |
Precipitation summary… A band of snowshowers moved along highway 160 yesterday afternoon. A couple of folks reported 0.10” and 0.20” of snow. Wolf Creek got a trace of snow.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning increased snowshowers and a little accumulation. Roads could be slick Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. ***
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the eastern San Juan Mountains – this includes Wolf Creek and Cumbres Passes. Up to 6” of snow and winds gusting to 50mph are possible from 2pm Tuesday to 5am Wednesday. ***
*** Thursday night into Saturday morning SNOWBLOWER ALERT and POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ***
Rest of Tuesday through Thursday morning… A trough will move through early Wednesday morning and bring us a few bands of snowshowers, especially over the mountains.
Most of Wednesday through Thursday morning will be mostly dry and chilly with gusty winds as a transient ridge moves through.
Timing…
Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning is the best chance for snow.
*** Roads could be slick Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. ***
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning a spotty snowshower is possible in the mountains.
Snow amounts Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning…
Wolf Creek area: 3-6”
Pagosa area: a dusting to 1”
Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be near 10 to near 20. Wednesday highs will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the low negative single digits to around 10.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph in the Pagosa area and 40-50mph in the mountains.
Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon… The main storm system will move through. Jetstream, flow direction, moisture, and storm energy are lining up for a decent storm.
Timing… Snowshowers will gradually increase over the mountains late Thursday afternoon and over the valley late Thursday evening. The heaviest snow will fall late Thursday evening into early Friday evening. Snowshowers will gradually taper off in the valley late Friday evening and over the mountains into early Saturday afternoon.
The snow level could pop up to 7,200ft Friday afternoon.
*** Most of the snow will fall between late Thursday evening and early Friday evening. Expect poor travel conditions across the region. ***
Snow amounts…
Pagosa area: 6-12”
Wolf Creek area: 18-26”
Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 30s. Thursday night lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Friday night lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Saturday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to low teens.
Winds… Thursday and Saturday afternoons gusts will be 15-20mph. Friday afternoon gust will be 25-30mph.
Sunday through Monday evening… Dry with temps near to slightly above average.
Monday night into Wednesday morning… The next low-pressure system will move through. It looks like another wimpy storm with low snow amounts. Stay tuned for the details.
I’ll do a post every day through Saturday.
– Shawn
