Hopefully it looks like this next week! – pic taken 7 Feb 2024
Thursday – 6 Feb 2025 – 12:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 52. The low this morning was 21. The cold spots dipped into the mid-teens.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 37mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 41 | 61 / 1963 | 2 | -31 / 1982 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Dry with gusty winds through Friday afternoon. ***
*** A few mountain snowflakes Friday night into Saturday morning. ***
*** Chance for occasional scattered snowshowers Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons. ***
*** Might need the snowblower Wednesday night into Saturday morning. ***
Thursday evening through Friday afternoon… The ridge will continue to push storm energy and moisture to our north. Patches of mid and high clouds will increase Friday, and winds will remain gusty, especially in the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teen to mid-20s.
Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph. In the mountains, gusts will be 35-45mph.
Late Friday evening through Saturday morning… We’ll catch the southern edge of a trough moving through northern Colorado. A few spotty snowflakes are possible, mostly over the mountains.
Temps… Friday night lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Winds… Winds will be erratic with occasional gusts 15-20mph.
Saturday afternoon through Wednesday morning… The jetstream will slowly sink south and bring more moisture into our area. It’s going to stay unsettled as weak troughs move quickly through the region. We’ll see periods of mostly cloudy skies and occasional bands of showers.
The best chance for showers is Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 3-6”
Pagosa area: 1-2”
Temps…
Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Each afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph. In the mountains, gusts will be 30-40mph.
This snow will mostly come from hit and miss snowshowers on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons.
Wednesday afternoon through Friday night… The main storm system will move through. Jetstream, flow direction, moisture, and storm energy are trying to line up for a decent storm.
At this time, I’m not confident about timing and snow amounts. I’ll make adjustments as the data gets better.
Rough first guess snow amounts…
Pagosa area: 5-10”
Wolf Creek area: 15-25”
Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Winds… Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Thursday and Friday afternoons gusts will be around 20mph.
The forecast models vary considerably on snow amounts and timing.
The next forecast post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
