See the happy pup? – Pic taken by Felipe on 1/29/2025
Friday – 31 Jan 2025 – 12:20pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 36 and on Thursday it was 30. The low this morning was 5. The cold spots were around zero.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 18mph and on Thursday it was 8mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 40 | 58 / 1986 | 3 | -35 / 1917 |
Precipitation summary… Snow amounts in the Pagosa area lined up well with my forecast. Wolf Creek was a disappointment with 4” – half as much as I expected.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Lots of sun, dry, and a warming trend through Tuesday. ***
*** The next storm is possible Wednesday through Friday. ***
Friday afternoon through Tuesday… The storm track has shifted back to our north. We’ll see a lot of blue sky and temps will warm to above average.
Clouds will increase Tuesday as the ridge moves east and upper-level southwest flow increases.
Temps…
Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Sunday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to the low 20s.
Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph each day through Monday. Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.
Wednesday to Friday afternoon… We’ll get a few scraps from a low-pressure system expected to move through northern Colorado. This system will be warmer with “rainflakes” near Pagosa. Precip amounts will be low and winds will be gusty.
The best chance for precip is Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Spotty snowshowers are possible, mostly over the mountains into the Friday afternoon, but additional precip will be minimal.
Snow levels…
Wednesday morning: around 7,500ft
Wednesday afternoon: above 8,000ft
Wednesday before midnight: dropping to 7,500ft
Thursday by sunrise: around 6,500ft
Thursday afternoon: around 7,000ft but temps will be above freezing
First rough guess snow amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-5”
Valley above 8,000ft: up to 2”
Valley below 8,000ft: up to 1”
*** Forecast confidence is low for timing, snow amounts, and snow levels. I’ll make adjustments as the data gets better. ***
Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Thursday highs will be in the low to mid-40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph. In the mountains, gusts will be 35-45mph.
This will be a mix of rain and snow near Pagosa so snow will mostly be less than 1”. Our mountains could get up to 5” of snow.
8-14 day period… It looks like the pattern will stay active. Nothing looks impressive now, but there’s plenty of time for something to develop into a good storm.
The inset shows the timing from left to right. It’s dry through Tuesday, and then we catch a few scraps Wednesday through Friday. Then it’s dry again for roughly 4 days. At the end, things try to line up for a decent storm.
The next forecast post will be on Sunday. Also, keep an eye out for the January Summary/February Outlook and the monthly newsletter.
– Shawn
