4” of new snow and perfect weather up at Wolf Creek on Wednesday – Pic taken 1/8/2025 by Felipe
Saturday – 11 Jan 2025 – 2:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 34 and on Saturday it was 34. The low this morning was 12. Friday morning lows were mostly in the -5 to 5 range.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Friday afternoon was 10mph and on Saturday afternoon it was 9mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 37 | 59 / 1956 | 2 | -22 / 1962 |
Precipitation summary… A dusting of snow fell in a few places in Pagosa Country overnight.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Saturday and Sunday afternoons expect light scattered snowshowers mostly over the mountains. ***
*** Dry with a warming trend Monday through Friday. ***
*** Potential for snow next weekend. ***
Rest of Saturday through Sunday… Two troughs will move quickly through the region from the northwest and north. The first trough will move through Saturday evening and the second will move through Sunday evening.
Scattered light snowshowers will be mostly over the mountains. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow each day while Pagosa will be lucky to see a few snowflakes.
Temps… Saturday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be near zero to the low teens. Sunday highs will be in the mid-20s to low 30s and lows will be -5 to 10.
Winds… Saturday and Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.
Monday through Friday afternoon… A low will spin off the southern CA coast while a ridge persists over us. We’ll see a lot of sun and a warming trend.
Clouds will increase Friday ahead of our next low-pressure system.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the mid-20s to low 30s and lows will be -5 to 10. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-singles to mid-teens. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the low to high 40s. Wednesday night lows will be near 10 to near 20. Thursday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 5-10mph.
Friday evening through early Monday morning… A low-pressure system will move through the region. At this point, the storm track, strength, and timing are fuzzy.
For snow amounts near Pagosa, the forecast models differ considerably. On the low end the GFS expects a dusting, while on the high end the Canadian expects 12”. My rough first guess is 2-4” for Pagosa and 4-8” for Wolf Creek.
Temps… Friday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Saturday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday highs will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.
Winds… Friday afternoon winds will peak around 15mph. Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
The 8-15 day period… Our nemesis, the West Coast ridge, will try to rebound. Much like the last 6 weeks, we’ll get scraps from systems moving through the region from the northwest.
In the upper left the Euro ensemble shows 0.81”.
In the upper right the Euro AI shows 0.75”.
In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.84”.
In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 1.62”.
The forecast models are being inconsistent so my forecast confidence is low.
My next post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
