A few spotty snowflakes tomorrow – Nice weather Wednesday through Saturday…

THANKS to all veterans for serving our country! – Arleen’s Basic Training picture taken August 1987

Monday – 11Nov 2024 – 12:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 52 and the low this morning was 25.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 3mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
52	70 / 1989	18	-10 / 1940

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 2 days.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Monday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is over our heads. There are few high cirrus clouds and lots of blue sky. Tomorrow we’ll catch the southern end of the trough that’s currently along the Pacific NW coast. There won’t be much moisture and storm energy so I don’t expect much precip. — Satellite Monday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is over our heads. There are a few high cirrus clouds and lots of blue sky. Tomorrow we’ll catch the southern end of the trough that’s currently along the Pacific NW coast. There won’t be much moisture and storm energy so I don’t expect much precip.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** A weak system will move through Tuesday. ***

*** Another chance for snow Sunday through Tuesday. ***

Rest of Monday… The ridge is over our heads so we’ll see a lot of blue sky and temps near season averages.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph

Temps… Highs Monday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Tuesday… We’ll catch the southern end of a trough as it moves through northern CO. Upper-level winds, storm energy, and moisture are all weak. My expectations are low – a few spotty snowflakes in the valley and an inch or two in the mountains. The best chance for precip is Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

NWS snow in the San Juan region shows a dusting along our mountains and up to 1" in our mountains. 2-4" is possible in the northwest San Juans. — *NWS snow in the San Juan region shows a dusting along our mountains and up to 1″ in our mountains. 2-4″ is possible in the northwest San Juans.*

Wednesday through Saturday… Transient ridging will give us lots of blue sky and temps near seasonal averages.

Winds… Wednesday and Thursday afternoon winds will be 10-15mph. Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Thursday and Friday highs will be around 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Saturday highs will be around 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in mid-teens to mid-20s.

Sunday through Tuesday… The next low-pressure system will move through. The forecast models are trending more towards a decent storm, but there is still a lot of uncertainty of the storm’s track, timing, and strength.

NBM snow to 11pm next Tuesday shows 3.6” near Pagosa, 4.9” near Chama, and 10-16” near Wolf Creek. There are still a wide range of outcomes for this system. Snow amounts range from 2” for Canadian model to 18” for the Euro. The ingredients are trying to line up for a decent storm. — NBM snow to 11pm next Tuesday shows 3.6” near Pagosa, 4.9” near Chama, and 10-16” near Wolf Creek. There are still a wide range of outcomes for this system. Snow amounts range from 2” for the Canadian model to 18” for the Euro. The ingredients are trying to line up for a decent storm.

The next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

Alice Keil says:

November 12, 2024 at 8:37 am

Any idea what the weather will be like Thanksgiving week?

Reply

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